Tropical Update: Karina strengthens and will become a hurricane over oceans to our east by Friday... It will track closer to the Central Pacific by Sunday... So it continues to be on our radar. Julio is now a tropical storm meandering over the Central Pacific to our north and continues not to be a threat. I continue to watch a batch of disorganized clouds to our SE. Some ask why I refer this to Ana. The Eastern PAC has a different list of storm names than the Central PAC. It depends on where the storm develops/forms. :) It looks like Ana has the potential to develop in the Central PAC...& since it hasnt materialized yet-- right now it is just evident on the weather models that I am looking at to see the potential of it becoming a named storm. Right now, I am using the models as a --scientific weather tool so we have to consider the uncertainty - but satellites are confirming each day -now -that there is more organization & thats been the trend for the last three days... -It has to become organized and circulate counterclockwise in the northern hemisphere for it to become -tropical cyclone status- along with the winds picking up within it to tropical depression strength or more. Thats why it is important to continue to watch this area. -The latest analysis from CpHC has a 60% chance for development and by this weekend a 80% chance... So in meteorology by using a science tool --> the weather model- l can confirm day to day if the probability is more likely to occur referring to the most recent observations and real time data and satellite. -If youre a mariner you may know the -ITCZ- Intertropical Convergence Zone--- or those who may sail call it the doldrums. In my colorful IR satellite below you can spot it as the area encircling the earth near the equator where the northeast and southeast trade winds come together. This area is associated with thunderstorms due to the winds and air mass converging together.... In tropical cyclone forecasting... I must keep an eye on this location once the action within this band becomes more organized it may produce possible tropical cyclones.... And that is what I am watching for --- it would mean the possibility of our next Hawaiian named storm. Since this location is closest to us... It is something I monitor on a day to day basis even before storms are spawned (during hurricane season). *Weather is just sooooo dynamic and fascinating isnt it?! So hope this all makes sense of how current observations are used hand in hand with science.... When a storm hasnt quite materialized. I will keep you updated :) Love this topic!
Posted on: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 19:50:32 +0000
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