Tropical storm Cristobal looks rather messy this afternoon. The clouds are disorganized and there is not a lot of curved banding going on. This tells me that the storm is not strengthening very quickly, if at all. The NHC forecast does indicate that Cristobal will become a hurricane as it tracks northward and eventually northeast, away from the Southeast United States. After almost a week of computer model mayhem, it looks as though everyone along the U.S. coast can relax, Cristobal is not likely to have a direct impact. One positive side effect of Cristobal becoming a hurricane, assuming it does, will be the increase in swells heading towards the coast. This means a few days of decent surfing coming up for parts of the East Coast. It also means an increase in rip currents and occasional dangerous surf conditions so swimmers need to be aware. Hopefully Cristobal will bring a period of decent waves for the surf community which in turn brings a little economic bump to local businesses (restaurants, gas stations, surf shops, hotels). Just be careful out there once the swells begin to arrive in a few days. Check your favorite surf site for more info on what may be a great week ahead. Once Cristobal turns northeast in a few days, it will head out in to the Atlantic, likely a safe distance from Bermuda and of course, Cape Hatteras. If it in fact does become a hurricane, it will probably be in the maps for a few days and help to pile up the seasonal ACE points. This is the measure of the energy output of tropical cyclones. Last year that number was very much below the long term average: 36. Cristobal has a chance add quite a few to this year’s total which is around 14 right now and slowly climbing. We’ll see how strong Cristobal becomes, the stronger it is, the more ACE points it adds. Elsewhere in the Atlantic, we are watching a tropical wave out in the deep tropics far from land that has a chance to develop as the coming week progresses. In the east Pacific, powerful hurricane Marie is churning well off the coast of Mexico. Top winds are 150 mph and it could make it to category five intensity later today. Fortunately, the hurricane is not forecast to track any closer to Mexico than it already is. However, dangerous surf conditions could impact parts of the coast and this extends up to southern California as well. Excellent surf but for those who are not used to such conditions, it can be harmful, so be careful and aware of local beach/surf information. I will have more here tomorrow morning.
Posted on: Mon, 25 Aug 2014 02:57:55 +0000
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