UKIP, who are they? Just under half voted Tory in 2010. The rest comprise a collection of far smaller groups: just over half a million former Liberal Democrats, around 400,000 each of those who voted Labour last time, or for Ukip itself, or did not vote. Almost two-thirds of Ukip voters don’t mention Europe. They are far more concerned about immigration (named by as many as 83 per cent) and the economy (49 per cent). When people are asked their general election voting intention, Ukip wins a steady 12 per cent vote share. When asked about the coming European parliament elections, Ukip’s share doubles. When Ukip supporters are asked which issues matter “to you and your family,” the number saying Europe falls to just 22 per cent. It comes sixth in a list of 13, behind the economy, immigration, health, pensions and welfare benefits. Could Ukip build on its recent success, and probable first place in the European parliament elections, to break through at Westminster next year? This looks far less likely. Ukip’s core problem is the same as the one that used to afflict the Liberals. Its evenly distributed vote crucifies it under our first past- the-post voting system. The real impact of Ukip’s vote next year will be its effect on support for the other parties. If Ukip wins 10 per cent of the national vote or more next year, then the loss of Conservative votes in key marginal seats will help Labour and the Lib Dems, and probably cost David Cameron the election. Forced to choose, most Ukip supporters would prefer a Cameron-led Tory government to a Miliband-led Labour government. The Conservatives are bound to frighten potential Ukip voters, with the message: “Vote Ukip, get Miliband.” The outcome of next year’s election depends in large measure on how successful that slogan turns out to be. prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/how-ukip-will-win-the-election/
Posted on: Tue, 25 Feb 2014 10:10:47 +0000
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