UPDATE >> PLEASE SHARE >> SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING >> Good afternoon PDS friends and fans. Sorry for the late post. I wanted to analyze the late morning models and observations before posting here on the page. The NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center has placed a large area of the mid Mississippi River Valley, the Ohio River Valley and the Mid South in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The current surface map (PIC 1) shows a warm front draped from west to east through central Missouri and Central Illinois. This warm front has been the focus of training thunderstorms during the overnight hours across central and northern Missouri and west central Illinois. A surface low over NW Missouri and another surface low over northern Oklahoma are forecasted to move across the area today and tonight dragging a sharp cold front through. Along and ahead of the cold front, thunderstorms will develop and move east. Currently the front is still in eastern Kansas, but is on the move. South of the warm front, temps have popped into the mid to upper 80s. There has not been a lot of rain or cloud cover over southern Missouri, southern Illinois, Arkansas, and the mid south. It is these areas that will experience the strongest storms in my opinion, as there has been little to inhibit the heating of the atmosphere there. \ Thunderstorms will fire off this afternoon and evening and move east over time. The storms will take on a linear shape with damaging winds and large hail possible. A tornado or 2 cannot be ruled out and the SPC has place a 5% risk to that affect. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH is in effect until 8pm (PIC 2) for eastern Oklahoma, western and northern Arkansas, and southwest and south central Missouri. Again, most of the region is under the slight risk (PIC 3). IF YOU HAVE FAMILY OR FRIENDS IN THESE AREAS, PLEASE SHARE THIS THREAD WITH THEM AND HAVE THEM LIKE OR PAGE SO THAT WE CAN GIVE THEM FURTHER UPDATES. *** PLEASE MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OUTLETS IN YOUR AREAS AND LOCAL MEDIA AS WELL.*** I will have more as things become available. - Gene
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 18:22:25 +0000
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