UPDATE: WARNING - VERY LENGTHY THIS WILL BE BROKEN DOWN INTO 3 SECTIONS 1ST SECTION good Christmas morning everybody, for this update we are going to look at 3 different models and several separate forecasts within the models. so bare with me the first of multiple model runs is the GFS. while the GFS has not been performing to good this winter so far, it is still a main model so i will show its predictions for the end and start of January. the first and second picture is the GFS, QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast. beginning Saturday night, it shows rain all the way from the gulf up to Michigan with the 32 degree line way off to the north and west of this precipitation shield. the freezing line is outlined as the light pinkish color. the black line i have drawn is where VERY cold, arctic air is currently present, and is about to be released into the united states in the next 1-3 weeks. the second picture shows the precipitation moving towards the east coast by Monday morning with the 32 degree line, still off to the west of this precip. some areas could expect the majority of this system to be rain, with some back end snow showers..not much in any way of accumulation for areas to the east of the freezing line. The GFS does show a low pressure system taking a ride along the jet stream in the south on the 3rd of January but due to low confidence, i will not be posting a picture of that date until it becomes more clear. moving on to the GFS temp anomaly, helps to easier see the overall pattern that is shaping up. the third picture shows a very wild pattern with below average anomaly temperatures in the entire central, and most of the eastern united states on the 31st of December. Noting the wild pattern we are in now, i am expecting a slight warm-up as i have drawn a arrow saying that the dark red colors above average temp anomaly will moving south and east into the united states. the fourth picture also shows what i had mentioned as for the date of January the 1st. We clearly see a pronounced area of above average temperatures for mainly the central united states. this will NOT be here to stay as the winter has something else up its sleeve. the fifth picture is for the date of january 4th, and what i was talking about is the arctic gearing up for major cold shots. the 5th picture shows that exact set-up. with VERY cold temperatures being placed all over the united states. Note the outlined area in the north-east corner, along with some oranges showing up along the west coast. this could mean BIG business. the SIXTH picture on the date of January the 10th, shows 2 high pressure systems located in the north-east corner and western corner, which could very well open up the cold air in Canada to flow southwards and allow the jet stream to dip very far south in this time-frame. PLEASE NOTE: this model is wrong quite often. dont necessarily look at precipitations amounts or dates to be exact, but the overall pattern is changing and looks to be getting colder. SECOND SECTION This second section will involve the model ECMWF euro model. the first picture we will take a look at is the QPF precipitation for Saturday. you can see it shows a large area of precipitation to move from west to east, reaching from the gulf coast to the great lakes. this set-up is very similar to the GFS run, with the freezing like mainly to the west of the shield of rain with a low pressure system possibly centered near the great lakes and possibly another one forming in the south. the second picture for the QPF shows that same system i mentioned in the first picture moving east with the 32 degree line dragging behind it, with possibly a second low developing in the south out-lined area and moving out to sea the third picture is for the date of December 31st and its the 2m temp anomaly. As you can see, it shows a swath of below average temperatures centered in the western,central and eastern united states. but notice the swath of reds and whites in Canada?. the fourth picture date jan 1st shows that warm area has fizzled out into almost nothing now. the fifth picture is January the 3rd, and it however..shows that warm area that was placed on the first has collided with a high pressure in the south and leads to a big area of above normal temperatures for the east coast and great lakes from the 2nd-4th of January. as this model does not going any further out then the 5th of January. all in all this model does show the same set-up trying to form as what the GFS shows. THIRD SECTION the last model we will be looking at is the CMC Canadian model run. for Saturday, this model along with the euro and GFS has shown a similar set-up for Saturday through Monday. the first picture and the second picture dated for the 29th, has a very interesting system riding up the mountains and heading to the east coast and forming into a noreaster. no other model shows this occurring so im skeptical. the third picture shows this noreaster becoming a monster and dropping 10+ inches of snow on the northeast. on the 30th it shows a strengthening low pressure off the north east coast and hammering in-land places with heavy snow. however...this set-up is likely to change as its still 4+ days away. so dont get excited. the 4th picture is the 2m temp anomaly forecast and the CMC shows a very large area of very below normal temperatures on the fourth of January. i am not posting any other runs from this model as its everywhere with the cold and warm air. NOTE: do NOT look at this as a EXACT forecast of what is going to happen...the dates could be extended or shortened with these events and the cold or warm could fade or get worse, this is just a IDEA of the pattern trying to set-up for January and February. PLEASE LIKE AND SHARE!!
Posted on: Thu, 25 Dec 2014 20:44:18 +0000
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