US demands for democratic reform in Egypt likely to take backseat - TopicsExpress



          

US demands for democratic reform in Egypt likely to take backseat to national security concerns Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi introduced a presidential decree in October 2014 that sought to bring those accused of acts of violence, material damage against public facilities or affiliated to banned groups to trial before military rather than civilian courts. Criminal prosecutors referred some 340 alleged supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood to military trial on 15 December, and sentenced a further 40 supporters of former President Mohamed Morsi to various terms of imprisonment on 18 December. Five civilians accused of disrupting state facilities were again referred to military courts on 30 December, and if found guilty, they may face the death penalty. Assessment The latest in a number of mass-trials held under al-Sisi’s presidency have attracted the attention of international human rights bodies, which accuse the judiciary of procedural irregularities that are in breach of international law. Significantly, the trials remain an essential component of al-Sisi’s stabilisation efforts and crackdown against the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood. Furthermore, the trials follow the United States’ congressional announcement on 16 December that military aid provision (to the tune of $1.4 million) will be linked to al-Sisi’s commitment to democratic reform. The revised bill stipulates that the release of funds must follow an open parliamentary election, demonstrable commitment to internal minorities and a process of law compliant with international standards. However, the bill also entails that in circumstances pertaining to national security, democratic focus may be abandoned in favour of domestic or regional stabilisation. While the US Congress’s decision to include a national security clause in the provision of aid to the country has attracted widespread condemnation from human rights activists, conservative lawmakers view al-Sisi and the Egyptian state as a significant regional actor and an ally against Islamist extremism. Given the current security climate, it appears likely that international financial and political support will favour al-Sisi and the waiver of national security. Problematically, an asset freeze on military aid may allow domestic groups to fill power vacuums in the country’s most challenging regions. Thus, it remains to be seen how effectual the US aid stipulation for democratic reform will be; particularly as Egypt has experienced a number of terrorist incidents in recent months, including the targeting of key gas lines within Sinai on 23 December and the shooting of police officers in Giza and Alexandria on 27 and 28 December respectively. This assessment is taken from our monthly briefing on political and security risk updates for January 2015. Would you like to support future briefings like this? Donation Amount:(Currency: GBP) Donation: Every Do not repeatMonth(s)Year(s) for times (0 means no end date)
Posted on: Mon, 19 Jan 2015 19:13:15 +0000

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