Ukraine / Russia update from Kforce: My summary -- As usual the Russian long term diplomatic chess game continues, or as the film clip below reminds us of the crude, but accurate, maxim about Russians and strategic thinking. A hard push followed by the appearance of a softer touch, the deft use of accelerator and break pedel as it were, shows that our Russian friends have lost none of their big picture skills. Russian leaders have not encouraged secession by the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, at least not openly. They have not recognized their independence referenda nor encouraged them to believe the regions could join the Russian federation, like Crimea. Russian military assistance has been sufficient to enable the regions to hold off Ukrainian forces, but not enough to enable them to secede. Lavrovs comments are the clearest recent statement of Russian policy and of Russias vision of an acceptable end game. The Russians have been consistent in encouraging Ukraine to amend the constitution to allow greater local autonomy, but have been vague about the political relationship between the government in Kyiv and the regimes in Donetsk and Luhansk. Lavrovs remarks suggest that Russia does not want Ukraine to fragment, at least not at this time. His statements do not foreclose a change in policy in that the Russians judge the burden is on Ukraine to create conditions for a peace settlement. The regimes in Donetsk and Luhansk might bridle at Lavrovs statements for denying them recognition, but the governments in Kyiv and the Baltic states might take some comfort that Moscow does not now appear to be seeking to break up Ukraine.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 14:55:34 +0000