Upper Low near Central Sierra Crest this Morning will Orbit counter clockwise into Western NV first, then over Northern Ca, then down the West Coast….More Showers and Thunderstorms expected this week…. Monday August 4, 2014 Posted at 9:15 am by Howard . Mostly cloudy w/Light rain this Am then a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon…especially if we get some Sun today…..Areas over more Eastern CA and just to our north may have heavy rain. If we get an hour or two of Sun today, Mammoth could get heavy rain as well. It all depends upon the amount of sunshine…. Precipitable water amounts of between and inch and close to two inches are found throughout much of California. This has creating humid conditions where it is warm or hot and damp weather where it is cool… The upper disturbance that carried this air mass into CA has weakened. However, it is located over/near the sierra crest/Tulare county on a line west of bishop. In that there are no real steering mechanisms with which to move this upper center. The center will most likely have a mind of its own, orbiting counter clockwise between Western NV and as far west as the CA coast throughout much of this week. Eventually a weak upper trof will pick this low up and carry the remains of this system out of here by next Thursday or Friday. Although PWAT will gradually be on the decrease, there will be more daytime heating to compensate for the lessening of moisture as the week progresses. According to the latest NAM model….Weak forcing from the far west cyclonic circulation will return this Wednesday, bringing a bit of an increase of TSRWs before heading south down the coast. If the models are correct, an upper high begins to build over our area Sunday for dry and warmer weather with above normal temps Saturday into Sunday…. This will be followed by even warmer weather early next week as the four corners high rebuilds…then retrogrades toward AZ…..All this while a southeast flow returns to Eastern CA for more thunder as we get Monsoon IV…….Wednesday or Thursday next week…. Presently, the smoke from the French Fire has been suppressed westward for the time being…..Mammoth is clear and cool…. The fire is 30% contained… Smoke may make a return Tuesday depending if the Upper Low shifts far enough north then SW for westerly or southwesterly flow at 700MB and 500MB to develop. That is forecasted to occur beginning Tuesday…… .- See more at: mammothweather/#sthash.I2L3KHXg.dpuf
Posted on: Mon, 04 Aug 2014 23:02:48 +0000
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