Vanuatu forecast to have two tropical cyclones for 2014/15 Season The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) releases its tropical cyclone outlook for the 2014-2015 Tropical Cyclone Season for Vanuatu’s Area (12S to 23° S and 160° E to 175° E) following the release of the regional tropical cyclone outlook. With the 2014-2015 Tropical Cyclone Season approaching (1st November 2014), the Pacific region is forecast to have 8 to 12 named tropical cyclones (TCs) from November 2014 to April 2015. Tropical cyclone activity for Vanuatu and New Caledonia is anticipated to be below normal for this season while elevated activity is expected for countries east of the International Date Line. The seasonal long forecast reflects an expectation of overall reduced activity during the early season (November to January) and net increased activity forecast in general during the late season (February to April). Vanuatu is located in an area where tropical cyclone numbers do not differ much and researches have established that it remains the hotspot of tropical cyclone activity in the region. With the ENSO neutral conditions existing in the Equatorial Pacific region and is forecast for a weak El Niño developing in the coming months, Vanuatu is likely to experience two tropical cyclones within Vanuatu’s Area which is consistent with the regional TC outlook. The forecast also indicate that there will be at least one or more severe tropical cyclone (category 3 or higher) to occur anywhere across the southwest Pacific during the season. In Vanuatu, tropical cyclone activity is at its peak during the months of December to February but highest in January. Each year Vanuatu and New Caledonia experience the greatest cyclone activity in the region with at least 2-3 cyclones passing close to the countries. Therefore people living in Vanuatu should remain vigilant at all times during this cyclone season in case conditions in the equatorial Pacific changes. Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-hazards Department (VMGD) will continue to carefully monitor the cyclone season with daily five Day Tropical Cyclone Outlook from the Forecasting Division. Information will be made available through our website (meteo.gov.vu) and widely circulated through the monthly Vanuatu Climate Update bulletins. For specific planning advice, should contact the Department of Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards. Further information: David GIBSON, Acting Director, Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards
Posted on: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 00:10:55 +0000
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