Venäjä on tuhottava, tai jotain sinne päin, kirjoittaa ruotsalainen trolli Expressenissä. Olennainen jää puuttumaan; kirjoittaja ei selitä peruskysymystä, miksi Venäjän pitää olla Euroopan ja Ruotsin vihollinen. Juttu onkin ymmärrettävä vaan siinä kontekstissa, että Euroopan pyhä tehtävä on Venäjän tuhoaminen. Paha-Putin on on vakava este tavoitteen saavuttamiselle. (Koko juttu käännettynä) Paranoia is the best defense against Russia Anna Dahlbreg, October 25, 2014 expressen.se/ledare/anna-dahlberg/paranoia-ar-vart-basta-forsvar-mot-ryssland/ The Swedish submarine hunt is called off for now, and its time to ask what the drama was really about. Did Russia simply want to be seen in the archipelago and trigger the reactions that we saw this week? Peter Mattson, a scientist at the National Defence University, does not hesitate. Definitely, he replies when we talk. Russia wants to expose our inability to defend ourselves. As with the violations of airspace they want to signal: we are here, but you will not find us. It may seem paradoxical, as Russias actions will strengthen public opinion for a stronger defense. But the paradox is only apparent, says Mattson. Russia dislikes a security vacuum. Weak states need outside help; just look at the Baltic states. The most important thing for Putin is that Sweden does not become a base area for NATO. If Russia can instead persuade Sweden to arm herself and freeze relations with NATO that would be completely in line with Moscows interests. It shows how much more sophisticated Russias security policy analysis must be. The image of Putin as a primitive arms freak is misleading. The warfare of todays Russia is engaged in – sixth generation warfare – is on the contrary extremely well thought out and fine-tuned. The goal is to use as little military force as possible to achieve ones aims. Instead, one carries out a contactless War, in which the attacker remains anonymous for as long as possible. This may involve manipulating national minorities, conducting information warfare, staging provocations or planting viruses. The Russian military leadership has been astonishingly open about its new strategy. In a speech in February 2013 Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia, stated that open use of force should be limited to the final phase, and even then in the guise of a peacekeeping operation. Before that, it is better to use political, economic, psychological and other soft means to achieve ones goals. He also noted something else: the line between war and peace has become blurred. It is worth recalling that the campaigns against Ukraine by no means began with the takeover of the Crimea, but can be traced back to the Orange Revolution in 2004. Russia has used every possible trick to hold on to Ukraine, from gas war to cyber war with the spy virus Snake. It was only when all other methods had been exhausted that the operation turned into its military phase, and even then it was done under the radar. Russian special forces, known as Spetsnaz, were inserted without designation and managed within one day secure 191 military items. All while Russia steadfastly denied any involvement. In the same way we are unlikely to see any open invasion of the Baltics. However, it is quite possible that Moscow will incite the Russian minority in Latvia using propaganda in the Russian TV channels. Putin recently warned about Latvian neo-Nazism. Another tool is the pro-Russian party Harmony, which has ties to Putins own party United Russia. In other countries Russia might stage some other kind of incident. Small-scale provocations already follow each other, such as the recent abduction of an Estonian agent near the border. The ambitions do not stop there. Russia is trying in various ways to soften and undermine EUs resilience. According to European intelligence services, for example, the entire political system of Bulgaria is corrupted by criminal organizations with direct ties to Moscow. According to the Financial Times Russia systematically uses money and corruption to gain influence: buying parliamentarians, buying into the City of London and buying the loyalty of individuals. (FT 23/10). In addition, Moscow is building up strategic alliances with Europes far-right parties. Victorious parties like the British UKIP and the French National Front praise Putin and blame the EU for having embarked on a cold war against Russia. In the worst case, we will have a Putinlover as president of one of Europes most important countries in a few years. It is essential to understand this overall picture when analyzing the Russian threat. This weeks anti-submarine warfare is just a small piece of a much larger puzzle. It would be a big mistake to limit the discussion to the need for new helicopters or submarine detectors on the bottom of the Baltic. We need to understand how the Russian leadership intends to decode its actions and propaganda. We need to understand the central importance of lies: how peace could mean war and how accusations of neo-fascism are used to divert attention from their own neo-fascist traits. We simply need to be paranoid. Sweden needs a foreign minister who, like his predecessor [Carl Bildt], understands how important it is to quickly call a spade a spade no matter how much Moscow denies it. And we need a defense minister who realizes that it is equally important to prop up civil defense as the military. There are worrying signs that the Social Democrat–Green government lacks a deep understand of the dynamics of what is happening in our neighborhood. Margot Wallström tweets about the UN and feminism, but seems to be lost in relation to what is happening around the Baltic Sea. If so, it is a far greater success for Moscow than this weeks cat-and-mouse game in the Stockholm archipelago. (Translated by Petri Krohn)
Posted on: Tue, 28 Oct 2014 12:20:36 +0000
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