Very well argued. Research on conflict finds that clan/ethnic grievances, real or perceived, are really not the basis for conflict. My own research from 2004-2008 supports this point. I analyzed South Central Somali conflict and with amble evidence demonstrated how clan was just a tool or a means to an end. The best evidence was the transient and convenience of clan conflict clearly evidenced by continues shifting of alliance. As Amin Amir artistically demonstrated in recent drawing, the current clan confederation is no different than clan opposition wars or religious war - they are all one - capturing of power. The only glue that is holding the country, temporary at that, is the presence of AMISOM. If taken out state conflict will flare up immediately. In each of the formed states there are groups from each given state who oppose on the formation, not based on culture or clan, but on perception they did not personally benefit for the formation or lost power leverage in the process. The current government seems to ignore the loosers in each state formation for they cant take up arms as long as AMISOM is present. The consolidation of Somaliland and Puntland were both done after clear winner by the barrel of gun, bringing the elders and making concessions to loosers. Then and only then can you form states. State formation is not revolutionary but evolutionary and is based on informal rules.
Posted on: Thu, 14 Aug 2014 00:32:40 +0000
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