WHERE “THEIR” CTU(COUNTER TERRORISM UNIT) HAS FAILED, NICOT WILL SERVE YOU….. After the attempted jail break at the Department of State Security (DSS), in a sane clime, the CTU would have provided government agencies and emergency officials with threat assessment, as well as utilizing news outlets and social media networking resources to notify public. It would also have outlined steps to take in response to a particular terrorist threat. I know after going through this, I might be accused of treason by some, I might be accusing of breaching public peace, but some might see it as PATRIOTISM and zeal to serve my fatherland. NICOT is the acronym for Nigeria Counter-Terrorism Unit in a template of mine of how to create an agency to wage an effective war on terror and win it. For the essence of this post, NICOT is in existence and from its Central Command (CENT COM) and in line with its CON OPS (Concept of Operations) I will be issuing a “threat assessment” and “SECA” (Security and Alert) levels. This was also captured in the “AREA OF RESPONSIBLITY OF NICOT” which included recommended scope of duty and operations of NICOT. In the military, AOR (Area of Responsibility) means trouble spot. They are to conduct what will be termed as BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) and TDA (Terror Damage Assessment) on “terrorist hideouts and “ground zero” after any terror attack. This will be done using fuzzy imagery and contradictory intelligence to appraise if a particular target had been destroyed or the assessing the degree of damages on a site of any terror attack. NICOT must be able to degrade, confuse, or defuse hostile radars, sensors, or radio communication with the use of Electro-Magnetic Counter Measures (ECM). NICOT must have an Electronic Counter Counter-Measures so as to have in place an active or passive defensive measures against enemy’s ECM such as frequency looping, or spread spectrum waveforms. NICOT must carry out ELINT (Electronic Intelligence Intercept and Analysis) of/any radar, radio frequency and other electromagnetic emission in order to determine terrorist/enemy’s location, numbers and capabilities. NICOT is to provide the government agencies and emergency officials with threat assessment, as well as utilizing news outlets and social media networking resources to notify public. It will also outline steps to take in response to a particular terrorist threat. Below is a graphical representation of the 5 SECA LEVELS: SECA 1: Least Severe (Green); lowest risk of terrorist attack and normal security and alert situation. SECA 2: (Blue) increased intelligence watch and strengthened security measure with general risk of terrorist attack. SECA 3: (Yellow) increase in force readiness above that is required for normal readiness (medium readiness) with significant risk of terrorist attack. SECA 4: (Orange) High risk of terrorist attack SECA 5: Most severe (Red) severe risk of terrorist attack (maximum readiness). After availing you all the background analysis, I will be providing you the details of the “Threat Assessment”. Based on the TDA (Terror Damage Assessment) of “ground zero” of Sunday March 31st 2014 attack on the SSS Building NICOT is coming up with these warnings: States like Gombe, Adamawa, Niger, Nassarawa, Plateau, Bauchi and Kaduna states are advised to move up to SECA 3. This is (Yellow) increase in force readiness above that is required for normal readiness (medium readiness) with significant risk of terrorist attack. It is as a result of their proximity to the location of the last two terror attacks. Borno State and Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. It is believed that the insurgents have gotten into the cities and was able to beat the security check points as they did not move in dedicated or marked cars, but in and through public transports. They have their cells in place as we speak, and it is believed the cells in the aforementioned states have gotten “their” attack orders and instructions. It is also believed that they will be moving “their” munitions and devices into those states in bits and trenches with different couriers on different buses. They will pose as passengers and their luggage will be light, but concealed and clutched to them. What we believe at NICOT will give them away are their nervousness, physical agitations and reaction to light sensitivity in some cases as most of them have been in holes and caves for too long. States like Lagos, Cross River and Zamfara states are advised to move to SECA 5: Most severe (Red) severe risk of terrorist attack (maximum readiness). This was formed on “intelligence analysis” of their activities in recent times. After the Abuja attack, we at NICOT believes they will want to carry out an audacious attack due to their frustration and response to their been repelled on Sunday March 31st 2014. This we arrive at from an armchair psychoanalysis of the insurgents following the trend of their activities. If the insurgents’ threats in recent times are anything to go by, their next target will be 1. Lagos state: this is due to the cosmopolitan nature of the state and its significance as the economic capital of the country, it is a prime target. 2. Cross River State: just as it is envisaged that the insurgents are moving their activities down south, it is also envisaged that they will be moving down south of Cameroun as the Northern part which borders Nigeria in the North is volatile and unsafe for their activities. It is believed they will move down south of Cameroun and enter Nigeria from the South and that leaves us the Bakassi peninsula and by extension Cross River State. It is also believed that because of risk of exposure and being compromised, a long haulage or journey is “unrealistic” they might be forced and barring any change in plans or detour, they will detonate their package in Cross River 3. Zamfara State: we arrive at Zamfara State at NICOT because of the simple fact that the present Minister of Defense is from the State, a seasoned spymaster and an accomplished soldier. This can also be the valid explanation for the increased successful military campaigns and operations against the insurgents. It is believed his expertise and experience has tremendously increased the fortunes of the Nigerian Military in their ongoing war against the insurgent. An attack on Zamfara is envisaged just in a bid to settle a personal score with the General. This is to undermine his popularity and dent his achievements recorded so far because a successful attack on his home stead is a bold statement that “a man that cannot protect his home, cannot protect the Country”. Rivers state was eliminated from the list because we at NICOT believes for “their” ego, the insurgents will want their actions bold, specific and not to be confused for an act of militancy or political bickering. RECOMMENDED STEPS TO BE TAKEN IN RESPONSE TO THESE TERRORISTS’ THREATS: The Police Command in the three states with SECA 5 Level should deploy BDS (Bomb Disposal Squad) to public places and parks. This is for them to conduct an on the spot BDA (Bomb Damage Assessment) and to defuse and advice the force on ground the potency of the IDEs deployed by the insurgents. Military Formations across the three states should be on “Red Alert” and while conducting routine check at the entrance or exits of their formations, they should guard against build up of vehicular or human traffic, this is to reduce the collateral damage to the best minimal level in case of suicide bombing. This is the envisaged actions of the insurgents on military formations in these states. To commuters in the Northern states with SECA warnings, if and when you notice such suspicious personality on the same bus with you, it is advised you get the attention of any of the military personnel at any check point as you have them in abundance along that route. Please you are advised not to inform the driver of your suspicion as you cannot be sure of the collaboration of the driver. You can scribble “SOS: SAVE OUR SOUL” on a board or paper and show it to any personnel at any of the road blocks. It is believed the transportation of their munitions and IEDs to Lagos will be done from Ibadan, and its environs. Commuters are advised to notify the driver of their suspicion and they should not at any point interrogate or attempt to apprehend such suspects. The driver should be advised to stop at the Berger and park so close to a detachment of the State”s RRS at Berger with a stationed Armored Personnel Carrier or make a detour and drive down to the Department of State Security at Magodo. It is the building before the CMD compound with a yellow fence and beams by the gate painted in Black and Red. After going through this, it might be seem and classified as ‘wild conjectures”, and some it might make sense to a lot of you but I can assure you all that before the close of work today, a copy of this will be on the desk of Lt. Gen. Aliyu Gusua (Rtd), the Honorable Minister of Defense. God Bless Nigeria.
Posted on: Thu, 03 Apr 2014 14:39:11 +0000
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