WTPZ44 KNHC 080257 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE THERAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART For more information, go to middletnweather.info
Posted on: Tue, 08 Oct 2013 02:59:22 +0000
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