Water for "Fundamental Rights in GB" 1.One of the greatest of human civilizations – the Indus Valley civilization (Harrapa and Mohenjo Daro) – flourished along the banks of the Indus. 2.In Pakistan population and the economy are heavily dependent on an annual influx into the INDUS RIVER SYSTEM (including the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej rivers) of about 180 billion cubic meters of water, that emanates from the neighboring countries and is mostly derived from snow-melt in the Himalayas. 3.The Indus irrigation system became the largest contiguous irrigation system in the world. 4.There three massive challenges in the last half century which Pakistan has Faced Regarding Water management. 5.Once again, the survival of a modern and growing Pakistan is threatened by water. 6.Water stress: Pakistan is already one of the most water-stressed countries in the world, a situation which is going to degrade into outright water scarcity due to high population growth. 7.There is no additional water to be injected into the system: There is no feasible intervention which would enable Pakistan to mobilise appreciably more water than it now uses. Arguably, overall use for irrigation needs to decline so that there are adequate flows into the degrading delta. 8.A high risk water environment: Pakistan’s dependence on a single river system means it has little of the robustness that most countries enjoy by virtue of having a multiplicity of river basins and diversity of water resources. While India (for example) might be able to muddle through because it has many rivers and if something goes wrong in one place the effect is cushioned by opportunities in other places, this is a luxury which Pakistan does not have. If the water/sediment/salt system of the Indus Basin goes badly wrong, that’s it. There is no latitude for error. 9.Large-scale degradation of the resource base: There is abundant evidence of wide-scale degradation of the natural resource base on which the people of Pakistan depend. Salinity remains a major problem, with some aspects partially controlled but others – including the fate of the approximately 15 million tons of salt which are accumulating in the Indus Basin every year, and the ingress of saline water into over-pumped freshwater aquifers – remain only dimly-understood threats. 10. Groundwater is now being over-exploited in many areas, and its quality is deteriorating: Over the past 40 years, the exploitation of groundwater, mostly by private farmers, has brought enormous economic and environmental benefits. A laissez-faire approach could be appropriate during this era. Groundwater now accounts for almost half of all irrigation requirements. Now, although, there is clear evidence that groundwater is being over-exploited, yet tens of thousands of additional wells are being put into service every year. In the barani areas of Balochistan, farmers are pumping from depths of hundreds of meters and in the sweet water areas of the Indus Basin, depletion is now a fact in all canal commands. Furthermore, there are serious and growing problems with groundwater quality, a reality that is likely to get worse because there are 20 million tonnes of salt accumulating in the system every year. Pakistan has thus entered an era in which laissez-faire becomes an enemy rather than a friend. There is an urgent need to develop policies and approaches for bringing water withdrawals into balance with recharge, a difficult process which is going to require action by government and by informed and organized users. 11.Flooding and drainage problems are going to get worse, especially in the lower Indus Basin: The natural state of heavily-silt laden rivers (like the Indus) is to meander. This is because as silt builds up in their beds, the rivers seek lower lands and change their courses. This creates havoc with human settlements and so, throughout the world, such rivers have been trained and confined by embankments within relatively narrow beds. But as with everything watery, solving one problem gives rise to another. 12.Climate change: The Indus basin depends heavily on the glaciers of the western Himalayas which act as a reservoir, capturing snow and rain, holding the water and releasing it into the rivers which feed the plain. It is now clear that climate change is already affecting these western glaciers in a dramatic fashion (far more seriously, for example, than in the damper Eastern Himalayas). While the science is still in its infancy, best estimates (Figure S8) are that there will be fifty years of glacial retreat, during which time river flows will increase. This – especially in combination with the predicted flashier rainfall – is likely to exacerbate the already serious problems of flooding and draining, especially in the lower parts of the basin, in the next few decades. But then the glacial reservoirs will be empty, and there are likely to be dramatic decreases in river flows– as shown in Figure S8, conceivably by a terrifying 30 percent to 40 percent in the Indus basin in one hundred years time. 13.An inadequate knowledge base: The Indus Basin is a single, massive, highly complex interconnected ecosystem, upon which man has left a huge footprint. When a dam or barrage is constructed the water and sediment cycles are changed dramatically. When water is diverted onto deserts, the water and salt balances seek new equilibriums. In a system so massive and complex, the generation and smart use of knowledge are the keys to adaptive management. But there has been very little investment in Pakistan in building this knowledge base and the accompanying institutional and human systems. The past twenty years should have been ones of massive investment in knowledge about this ecosystem. But the reverse has happened, and even the once-renowned Pakistan water planning capability has fallen into disrepair. The country is literally flying blind into a very hazardous future. 14.Water productivity is low: Large parts of Pakistan have good soils, abundant sunshine and excellent farmers. And yet crop yields, both per hectare and per cubic meter of water, are much lower than international benchmarks, and much lower even than in neighbouring areas of India. The quality of water service plays an important role in this: yields from reliable, self-provided groundwater are twice those of unreliable and inflexible canal supplies. In water matters, the cup is always half empty, but it is also half, or, in the case of Pakistan, at least a quarter, full. In confronting these awesome challenges, Pakistan has considerable strengths, too. 15.Pakistan has to invest, and invest soon, in costly and contentious new large dams: When river flow is variable, then storage is required so that the supply of water can more closely match water demands. Relative to other arid countries, Pakistan has very little water storage capacity. United States and Australia have over 5,000 cubic meters of storage capacity per inhabitant, and China has 2,200 cubic meters, Pakistan has only 150 cubic meters of storage capacity per capita. storage capacity available in some of the major arid basins in the world. The dams of the Colorado and Murray-Darling Rivers can hold 900 days of river runoff. South Africa can store 500 days in its Orange River, and India between 120 and 220 days in its major peninsular rivers. By contrast, Pakistan can barely store 30 days of water in the Indus basin. As shown in Figure S11, each million acre feet (MAF) of storage capacity lost means one MAF/year less water that can be supplied with a given level of reliability. And there is an urgent need for storage just to replace the capacity that has (as predicted) been lost to sedimentation. Given the high silt loads from the young Himalayas, Pakistan’s two large reservoirs are (as predicted at design) silting relatively rapidly. Poor governance and low trust: Conceptually the simplest task for water managers in the Indus Basin is to move water in a predictable, timely manner to those who need it and have a right to it. Pakistan has among the best water engineers in the world. And yet this task is done less and less satisfactorily, less in the light of day and more behind an opaque curtain in which, as always, monopoly + discretion - accountability = corruption. The result is inequitable distribution of water, poor technical performance and a pervasive environment of mistrust and conflict, from the provincial level to the water course. The water bureaucracy has yet to make the vital mental transition (depicted in Figure S3) from that of builder to that of manager.
Posted on: Mon, 09 Sep 2013 09:14:06 +0000