Weekend Box Office Forecast: The holiday movie season kicks off this weekend with a massive sci-fi showdown: Christopher Nolans Interstellar and Disney Animations Big Hero 6 each appear poised to open north of $50 million this weekend. If each movie does clear that threshold, it will be only the fourth time in history that this has happened: there was WALL-E and Wanted in 2008, Madagascar 3: Europes Most Wanted and Prometheus in 2012 and Monsters University and World War Z in 2013. In each of those cases, the animated movie came out on top, which may be an indication about whats to come this weekend. After a two-day run in 249 theaters, Interstellar expands to around 3,500 locations on Friday. The sci-fi adventure finds Matthew McConaughey leading a team of NASA explorers (including Anne Hathaway) across the universe in search of a new home for mankind. One of the movies main selling points is the fact that it was directed by Christopher Nolan, who has managed to establish himself as one of the biggest behind-the-camera stars currently working in movies. Nolans last three features (The Dark Knight, Inception and The Dark Knight Rises) combined to earn over $2.9 billion worldwide. The most impressive of those is Inception, a wholly original movie that took in $293 million at the domestic box office and over $825 million worldwide. There are two main reasons why the Nolan brand is a big box office draw. First, he has a reputation for delivering quality movies: his previous eight movies all scored at least 75 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. More importantly, Nolan is known for making the type of immersive, large-scale movies that must be seen on a big screen. Thats been a key component of Paramounts marketing for Interstellar: this isnt just a movie, its an experience that you shouldnt wait to watch on your 40-inch television. Along those same lines, Paramount and Nolan are urging moviegoers to see Interstellar in IMAX. Nolan shot around an hour of footage using IMAXs 65mm cameras, which allow for a more immersive image: previous movies that utilized this technology include Nolans last two Batman movies, Mission: Impossible—Ghost Protocol, Star Trek Into Darkness and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Interstellar will be playing in 370 IMAX theaters domestically, which is the biggest ever IMAX release. Last November, Catching Fire opened to $12.6 million from 347 IMAX screens; a year earlier, Skyfall debuted to $12.5 million. With such a strong emphasis on the format, its fair to expect Interstellar to wind up in the same range this weekend. The big question, though, is how the movie will play among general moviegoers who arent quite as enamored with Nolan and dont really know or care much about the IMAX experience. From this end, the marketing has been a bit of a mixed bag. Advertisements do a solid job establishing stakes on a global and personal level: McConaugheys character seems equally interested in saving the human race and his family. Less impressive is the approach to selling the visuals: while theres some intriguing imagery here, its not nearly as attention-grabbing as that in last years Gravity or Nolans Inception. To that end, the movie also seems to lack the kind of action that helped sell Inception. It doesnt help that much of the publicity surrounding Interstellar has been focused on how scientifically accurate it is. While thats surely a selling point for someone, its also serving to make the movie seem a bit like a homework assignment. Interstellar could also be hurt by mixed reviews: as of Wednesday afternoon, it was at 74 percent on Rotten Tomatoes. If that number holds steady, it will make this the lowest-rated Nolan movie yet. Still, a so-so final push doesnt really negate the fact that this is one of the most anticipated movies of the year. Paramount is expecting $50-to-$55 million for the three-day weekend, though it wouldnt be surprising if it tipped over $60 million: Fandango is reporting that its outselling Inception, Gravity and Prometheus. Ahead of the weekend, Interstellar is playing for two days at 249 theaters: all of these theaters are showing the movie on film only (no digital projection). Paramount is estimating that the movie will earn at least $1.5 million on Wednesday, which will be enough for first place at the box office. From what we can tell, this will be the first time in over a decade that a movie took first place while in limited release (Chicago did it for three days in January 2003). While Paramount is handling domestic distribution, Warner Bros. is releasing Interstellar overseas. The movie opens in most markets this weekend, though it doesnt reach China until next weekend. Inception scored $533 million overseas; a more realistic expectation is a total in line with last years Gravity ($442 million). Opening at around 3,700 theaters, Big Hero 6 could wind up in first place ahead of Interstellar this weekend. Big Hero 6 marks the fourth movie in Disney Animations recent renaissance: it follows 2010s Tangled, 2012s Wreck-It Ralph and 2013s Frozen. While Ralph and Tangled were both hits—each earned over $185 million in the U.S.—they pale in comparison to Frozen. The animated sensation earned over $400 million domestically, which is tops for an animated non-sequel in its initial run (The Lion King ranks ahead of it thanks to a 3D re-release). Disney is hoping that the critical and commercial success of these recent outings helps propel Big Hero 6: virtually every piece of marketing for the movie makes sure to remind viewers that its from the creators of Wreck-It Ralph and Frozen. The other key strategy in Disneys Big Hero 6 marketing effort is a focus on one particular member of the titular superhero team. That character, of course, is an inflatable, overweight robot named Baymax, who appears to provide much of the movies comic relief. Focusing on a unique, funny supporting character has been a tenet of many successful animated campaigns: Despicable Me had the Minions, Frozen had Olaf, and now Big Hero 6 has Baymax. The opening weekend record for a non-sequel computer animated movie belongs to The Incredibles, which opened to $70.5 million on this same weekend a decade ago. With ticket price inflation, the addition of 3D premiums, and a Disney Animation brand thats arguably close to Pixar circa 2004, Big Hero 6 has an off-chance of matching that figure. According to Fandango, Big Hero 6 is outselling Tangled and Wreck-It Ralph, which opened to $49 million on this same weekend in 2012. Ultimately, Big Hero 6 will likely wind up somewhere in between Ralph and The Incredibles ($70.5 million) this weekend. The weekends only major limited release is Stephen Hawking biopic The Theory of Everything, which is opening at five locations in New York and Los Angeles. The movie is receiving strong reviews (86 percent on Rotten Tomatoes) and plenty of awards buzz for lead actors Eddie Redmayne and Felicity Jones. Look for a per-theater average of at least $40,000 this weekend. Forecast: 01. Big Hero 6 - $57 million 02. Interstellar - $52.3 million 03. Ouija - $5.7 million 04. Gone Girl - $5.4 million 05. Nightcrawler - $4.8 million Bar for Success For the five-day frame, Interstellar needs to open at least on par with Inceptions three-day weekend ($62.8 million). Meanwhile, Big Hero 6 needs to at least match Wreck-It Ralphs $49 million. Courtesy of Box Office Mojo (but the predictions are mine.)
Posted on: Sat, 08 Nov 2014 19:09:26 +0000
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