WestPacWx-wise: Four days before the historic Papal visit to the Philippines, we are tightly watching the impending development of Invest 92W into a full-fledged Tropical Depression in the next 2-3 days as models continuing to pick up on a possible Tropical Storm by early 15-17th of January over the East Philippine Sea. Indicators are consistent on this as a minimum Tropical Storm potentially making a sweep along the Eastern coast of Bicolandia mid-Friday through Saturday (16th-17th of January 2015) still long-range. It is the same system weve been closely monitoring since day one this year. At this juncture, Invest 92W was spotted near 2,884 km East-southeast of Dinagat Island or 1,528 km East-southeast of Yap Island as of 1001Z (0601PM-PHL). Winds remain weak at 15 kt with central pressure of 1004 hPa. The system continue to battle moderate shear conditions. Well see how it plays in the next 12-24h. Let me state it clearly, these are still long-range forecasts, subject to change in the coming days but because these dates are very important for the Philippines in the light of Pope Francis visiting Manila and Yolanda-ravaged Tacloban City on these dates (15-19 January 2015), this could adversely affect preparations and contingencies for the visiting Pope and the travel mayhem it may cause the millions of devout Catholics from around the country. This scenario have been predicted on the first day of the year and lets hope the storm weakens as it traverses relatively unfavorable atmospheric conditions given the prevailing cold surges normally at this time of year. Rains could beset the historic visit so our people may want to arrange travel plans ahead. Again, this is not contrary to the values of our friends at DoST-PAGASA. This is an information not a forecast. Data was assimilated by JMA and US-based forecasting tools. They have always been very useful in coming up with a practically necessary wx analysis. Keep in mind that severe wx formations start their early stage of development way outside the imaginary PAR line which our state bureau continue to insist on, which in my opinion rather insignificant. So please do not hate us. We are here to help and stay for good. We just cannot tolerate a repeat of yet another disaster (like Seniang/Jangmi). People lost their lives because most have been complacent and warnings werent near adequate and not enough fact. Earnest preparations do save lives. Disasters strikes when you least expect it. So dont rely much on faith alone. Act. Think again. @weatherguyadonz Source: on.fb.me/1wKAVag For more weather updates please visit PANAHON BLOG at weatherngayon.wordpress
Posted on: Wed, 14 Jan 2015 07:54:43 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015