What Positions Offer Most Value for the San Francisco 49ers in 2015 NFL Draft?: Deciphering what the San Francisco 49ers need in the 2015 NFL draft is difficult when they have neither a coach nor a philosophy in place, but we can at least start making some educated guesses. No matter who ends up calling plays for the 49ers, the basic team needs will remain the same. The 49ers most pressing need that can’t be filled from inside the team is for a feature wide receiver. Even if the 49ers do re-sign free agents Michael Crabtree and Brandon Lloyd, the 49ers have at best an average receiving corps. They especially need someone to serve as a second receiver to Anquan Boldin. While Boldin compares decently to other teams top receivers, Michael Crabtree was one of the worst second options in the league in 2014, and he’ll likely want to get paid like a top receiver. There are at least three other positions, however, which could be more pressing needs than receiver if the 49ers can’t retain their own players. At offensive guard, Pro Bowler Mike Iupati is a free-agent-to-be. If he leaves, the 49ers will be stuck with either redshirt rookie Brandon Thomas, career backup Joe Looney or out-of-position Marcus Martin or Daniel Kilgore at left guard. Any of them would likely be at least an immediate downgrade from Iupati, so a high pick could be used there if Iupati walks. At defensive end, the 49ers have already released Ray McDonald. They also could possibly see Justin Smith, who turns 36 next season, retire. While Smith hasn’t said anything about that himself, the 49ers’ official webpage has posted articles about a potential Smith retirement. That would leave Tank Carradine, Tony Jerod-Eddie and possibly Quinton Dial battling it out for two starting spots. Replacing McDonald is already going to be tough; replacing McDonald and Smith might be too much without a high draft pick. At cornerback, Chris Culliver, Perrish Cox and Chris Cook will all be free agents. The 49ers will have to sign someone else to play across from Tramaine Brock, or they’ll simply not have enough warm bodies to compete. It’s possible Jimmie Ward could move up to being a starting cornerback, but that still leaves the nickel and dime roles to be filled. You can add to that the fact that the 49ers will almost have to draft a late-round quarterback, thanks to Colin Kaepernick being the only one on the roster. This upcoming season will be a make-or-break season for Kaepernick as well, so having a safety valve for 2016 would be a good use of draft capital. The 49ers could also use depth at every position except possibly fullback, kicker and punter, so there’s no end to what they could do in the draft. That means San Francisco might be able to draft for value rather than simply need. With so many needs roughly equivalent in scope, the 49ers can afford to take players who drop to them rather than reaching down their draft boards to pick a player higher than he “deserves” to go. Rather than try to match specific players to specific picks, I thought I’d go round-by-round and see what sorts of players might be available. That way, we can see what sorts of needs the 49ers can address without reaching. For reference, I looked at both ESPN’s draft rankings (subscription required) and CBS’s draft rankings to get a good feel for where players are being mocked at this moment. Obviously, a lot will change between now and draft day, but it’s a good way of getting an idea of who might be available. First Round Most of the value in the middle of the first round looks to be in positions the 49ers don’t need, honestly. There are plenty of offensive tackles available, with players like Cedric Ogbuehi of Texas A&M, Andrus Peat of Stanford and T.J Clemmings of Pittsburgh falling in this area. Using a first-round pick on a right tackle, however, seems like a bit of a waste considering the 49ers’ needs elsewhere. While a cornerback like Michigan State’s Trae Waynes might be the best individual value pick at this point in the draft, there looks likely to be at least a couple of receivers who might fall somewhere around here—and the odds are at least one will drop to the 49ers at 15. We’re talking about players like Louisville’s DeVante Parker, West Virginia’s Kevin White or Oklahoma’s Dorial Green-Beckham. It is likely a couple of receivers will go off the board before the 49ers get to pick, thanks to needs in Oakland and Minnesota, but there are enough players here that the 49ers could probably get someone of decent value. If San Francisco could grab Parker, that would be a fantastic pick in the first round. He doesn’t quite have elite top-end speed or game-changing ability, but he has a great combination of size, quickness and route-running ability. Even if Parker’s off the board, however, there’s enough mid-round talent at the receiver position for the 49ers to make a move. Second Round If the 49ers take a receiver in the first round, this is where they could shore up the cornerback position. CBS has nine cornerbacks who it says could fall somewhere in the second round, including Washington’s Marcus Peters, Wake Forest’s Kevin Johnson and Stanford’s Alex Carter. Peters might drop due to being dismissed from the team midseason. He has the talent and physical attributes to be a first-round pick, but anytime your own team doesn’t want you, questions need to be asked. His talent, if he fell into the middle of the second round, might be enough to overcome those concerns, however. Peters is an aggressive, physical tackling machine—an Aqib Talib-type who can play with any receiver in the league. A safer pick might be someone like Kevin Johnson, who I’m very high on. He’s lean, weighing in at only 175 pounds, but he has the best play-recognition skills I’ve seen in this year’s draft. I’ve yet to see him get caught out of position on tape. His lack of speed and size might drop him down to the second round—but those were the knocks on Chris Borland. Play recognition is so crucial to playing defense; you can have all the talent in the world, but if you take too long to figure out what an offense is doing, you will be destroyed in the NFL. Receivers will be available here as well, so if the 49ers fall in love with a first-round cornerback, they could always take someone like Rashad Greene from Florida State in the second round instead. Value-wise, it is more likely to see the 49ers go receiver and then cornerback in the first two rounds. What About a Defensive End? The problem with the 49ers needing a defensive end in this draft is that there isn’t a big block of 3-4 ends they will likely be able to choose from. CBS has six listed as possible first-round choices, but only Arik Armstead of Oregon really fits as a 3-4 defensive end; the others are all 4-3 ends or 3-4 outside linebackers. The same problem comes with the nine possible second-round choices; only Armstead and Florida State’s Mario Edwards really fit a 3-4 position well. There isn’t a spot where the supply of ends will outweigh the demands, meaning a very good player falls to a position of great value. What the 49ers might end up doing, then, is taking someone like Armstead or Edwards in the first two rounds and using their third-round pick to fill the cornerback or receiver roles—there’s a glut of mid-round players available at either position. For receiver, you could see the 49ers taking someone like Michigan State’s Tony Lippett or UCF’s Breshad Perriman. The options at cornerback are even deeper, with Tulane’s Lorenzo Doss and Florida Atlantic’s D’Juon Smith leading the way. Any of the receivers or cornerbacks available here would be a drop-off from the first two rounds but could be taken safely here if the 49ers fall in love with someone else in Round 1 or 2. Offensive Line Help Day 3 is probably the time to target some offensive line depth. With the 49ers mostly needing improved depth at the position, values can be found later than at the skill positions. The fourth and fifth rounds, then, are a great place to start delving for these sorts of players. The 49ers need an offensive tackle to replace Jonathan Martin as the primary backup and challenge Anthony Davis for a starting role. Sean Hickey of Syracuse, Jake Fisher of Oregon and Daryl Williams of Oklahoma are all players who might be available in those mid-rounds. The 49ers might be comfortable with Brandon Thomas as their starting guard going forward, but Texas A&M’s Jarvis Harrison, Louisville’s John Miller and Duke’s Laken Tomlinson are all possible options deep in the draft for depth and competition purposes. It’s worth noting that 67 players started eight games or more this season on the offensive line despite not being picked in the first three rounds. This includes the 49ers’ own Alex Boone as well as Pro Bowlers Jason Peters, Jahri Evans, Josh Sitton and Jason Kelce. Talent can be found late in the draft at these sorts of positions, so the 49ers might be best served to wait until the third day to address those needs. But What About a Quarterback? With needs elsewhere, the 49ers will probably wait to take a quarterback until the very end of the draft unless they get fortunate with their compensatory selections. There are a few names that might be available in the last two rounds, however, who intrigue me and thus make the strategy a decent one value-wise for the 49ers. Cody Fajardo out of Nevada is one such name. Only two quarterbacks in FBS history have 3,000 rushing yards and 9,000 passing yards—Fajardo and the man he replaced, Colin Kaepernick. If you’re going to build an offense around Kaepernick’s particular skill set, then having his understudy from college in the ranks as well makes a lot of sense. You wouldn’t have to change the style of your team for him if Kaepernick went down with an injury. If Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel opts to come out into the 2015 draft, he’s another name to watch closely. He’s a more traditional pro-style quarterback with a lightning-fast release. He only has one year of college experience behind him, thanks to an early career transfer from Notre Dame, so he’d be incredibly raw. In his first college start, however, he threw six touchdown passes, an NCAA record. He’s not ready to be a starter anytime soon, but he would be an exciting developmental pick. Other names which may be available at this point include Notre Dame’s Everett Golson, Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson and Oregon State’s Sean Mannion. With the 49ers committed to Kaepernick for one more year, they can afford to draft an interesting name in the late rounds. If Kaepernick succeeds, this pick can be groomed to be a solid backup. If Kaepernick fails, the developmental quarterback would have a full year to get ready for a competition in 2016 with a highly drafted quarterback like Christian Hackenberg or Connor Cook. To sum up, then, the draft strategy that provides the most value for the 2015 San Francisco 49ers might go as follows: * Draft a wide receiver in the first or second rounds. * Draft a cornerback in the second or third rounds. * Draft a 3-4 defensive end with the remaining pick in the first three rounds. * Draft offensive line depth in the fourth and fifth rounds. * Draft a developmental quarterback in the final rounds. While there are a great many variables that go into planning a draft strategy and there are still miles to go before the first pick is actually announced, this is a positive starting point to thinking about getting value out of this year’s draft. Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers. Follow him @BryKno on Twitter. Read more NFL news on BleacherReport #NFLDraft #Football #NFL #NFCWest
Posted on: Tue, 13 Jan 2015 06:50:48 +0000
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