What would be the likely outcome if Texas announced secession from the United States? Carter Moore, Made in America Before answering this question, we need to consider why a state is unable to leave after joining the Union, and the short answer is that its been found that when a state signs up to the Constitution, theyre signing up for a perpetual union. The Supreme Court decision cited in that answer, Texas v. White, does leave open the possibility of secession through consent of the States. So lets look at the possible process behind Texas seeking a peaceful, consent-driven split from the US. First, there would have to be a vote within Texas itself to be sure that Texans actually wanted to leave. No other state would even dream about supporting Texas secession if its government could not provide evidence that it was acting in accordance with the will of its people. The returns come back, and a strong majority of Texans say, Yup, we want to go. When Congress returns to Washington, legislation is introduced in the House and Senate to provide for the secession of Texas, pending approval by the other 49 States. Despite the Texas members uplifting oratory about states rights and the will of the people, their colleagues take a look at Texas $1.2 trillion economy and its resurgent oil wealth, and then try to contain their laughter as they vote down the legislation with a vengeance. Texas Members of Congress walk out and resign en masse in protest, and the governor refuses to set dates or appointments to fill the vacant seats. Besides, he tells the people of Texas, we dont need Congress approval, just the other states. So he takes his case to his fellow governors and implores them to put resolutions to allow for Texas secession on the ballot in their various, upcoming elections. 49 times, hes told, No, and he also receives 49 separate recommendations for excellent psychiatric care. Fine! he says. But this is a peoples movement, so were going to take our case to the people! In every state, there are suddenly branches of People for the Secession of Texas! campaign, who begin going door-to-door to get their measure on the ballot by way of popular petition. These campaign workers find support from a myriad of quarters, ranging from those who support states rights, those who really despise all things Texas, and people like me wholl agree to put anything on the ballot despite having zero intention of voting in favor of it, because democracy. They hit a bit of a roadblock, though, when some states, like Virginia, dont allow voter petitions to appear on statewide ballots in the absence of the state legislature voting to allow it, And we already told you, No. Fine! Texas says. You think we were annoying before, you just wait! The Texan Independence Party organizes, and the governor immediately appoints its Chair and Deputy to replace the senators who resigned earlier in the Congress. They proceed to block (or try to block) everything that happens in the Senate. Most times, large enough majorities come together to put a stop to their filibustering and procedural maneuvering, but the senators intentions are clear. Later, following elections to fill the vacant House seats, the 36 TIP Representatives manage to slow down the House by using every possible rule and procedure at their disposal. Eventually, their colleagues in Congress get so f***ing annoyed with the TIPs antics that they say, Fine! Fine! Well give you your stupid referendum! Just knock it off with the 8 a.m. quorum calls, okay?! The bill to authorize Texas secession, pending approval of the other states, passes Congress by the slimmest of majorities. Its immediately vetoed by the president, because history looks poorly on presidents who allow states to secede. Were going to do this every Congress until you get a veto-proof majority and allow us to leave! In order to bypass the president, who will always veto the measure, and the fact that they will never, ever get a veto-proof majority on a straight piece of legislation (Just because I voted for it the first time, doesnt mean I want to stand up to the president.), a frustrated Congress goes all-in and proposes a Constitutional amendment that simply reads: Texas shall be permitted to leave the United States of America within five years of ratification of this Amendment. Now, passing a Constitutional Amendment doesnt require a two-thirds majority of each chamber, just a two-thirds majority of those present when there is a quorum. Having gotten very good at meeting quorum, thanks to the TIP caucus incessant calls for such, on the day the Constitutional Amendment is taken up, there are precisely 218 Representatives and 51 Senators present in each chamber. As such, only 146 votes are necessary in the House, and 34 in the Senate, for the resolution to pass. It takes a bit of cajoling, but the Congressional leadership are able to find enough Representatives and Senators who will vote in favor of the resolution simply on the principle of affirming states rights. Some absent members threaten to crash the vote to derail the count and scuttle the resolution, but are strongly advised against it, Unless you want to keep dealing with this crap. The resolution passes with exactly the number of votes required. Weve done our part, now, the leaders say to the TIP caucus, so knock off your antics or well censure and expel the lot of you. The proposed Amendment goes to the states, where it languishes. Its never ratified, Because weve already told you, No. Twice. Eventually, the people of Texas get sick of all the political oxygen going towards a secession movement that will never succeed peacefully, and very few of them are willing to take up their guns for the cause. When the next election rolls around, they kick out the governor, most of the TIP caucus, and try to return to business as usual. The likely outcome? Humiliating failure.
Posted on: Mon, 01 Dec 2014 00:24:04 +0000
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