When Vladimir Putin formally annexed Crimea this week, he acted in defiance of the predictions of many pundits, politicians and so-called experts. Perhaps Putin was not impressed by their sound reasoning and elegant discourse on how his invasion and annexation threatened Russia’s interests. But the main problem with the West’s “Putin would never” arguments is that they assume Putin and his ruling elite care about Russian national interests. They do not, except in the few areas where such interests overlap with their goal of looting as much treasure as possible. It is long past time to stop listening to professors’ lectures about what Putin would never do and high time to respond to what he does — before he does it again. The next obstacle to stopping Putin is the self-imposed paralysis of the leaders of Europe and the Group of Seven. ... There are plenty of levers available to apply pressure on Putin, but they require confronting several hard truths. And this is a generation of political leaders accustomed to telling citizens that it is possible to both cut taxes and spend more, to be free and be safe, to be a great power without ever using power. The first hard truth is that the only sanctions or other measures that would affect Putin’s conduct are those that, directly or indirectly, would target his hold on power. That is all Putin cares about, because he knows what happens when people in his position lose that grip. This is why a recent comment by Secretary of State John Kerry was precisely wrong. “We hope President Putin will recognize that none of what we’re saying is meant as a threat,” Kerry said. “It’s not meant in a personal way.” With one feeble remark, Kerry took off the table the only thing Putin cares about. Obama repeated this mistake on Wednesday when he said that the United States would not send troops to defend Ukraine. Nobody was asking for troops, and Obama probably thinks he is defusing tensions. But where Obama sees a gesture of peaceful intent, Putin sees more weakness. To Putin, his opponent freely surrendered one of his greatest advantages: America’s overwhelming military strength. On Iran, on Syria and now regarding Ukraine, Obama has outsourced his foreign policy to Putin and, in so doing, has crippled the power of his office in ways that will long outlast his White House tenure. By Garry Kasparov, Friday, March 21, 12:40 AM Garry Kasparov is chairman of the Human Rights Foundation, based in New York. The Washington Post
Posted on: Fri, 21 Mar 2014 12:59:03 +0000
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