Wholesale #energymarketreport from #bcconsultants today - Gas: Current DA 57.10, April 2014 - 57.20. Why? o NBP prices slumped after previous day’s rally, as fears of a significant cut in Russian supplies transiting through Ukraine eased yesterday. NBP ICE April 2014 prices fell from a three-week high and plunged by 5.83% at the close, to 58.1 pence/th. o Decreasing tension in Ukraine also drove spot and curve prices lower on the continent. The conflict had no fundamental impact on Russian exports so far, as flows to Slovakia through Ukraine remained stable at 104.5 mm cm/day, while flows though Nordstream increased by 9.5% compared to Monday. TTF ICE April 2014 prices dropped by 5.56% at the close, to EUR 23.871 /MWh. The far curve came under additional bearish pressure from weaker oil prices, as concerns of a military threat to Ukraine from Russia eased yesterday. TTF ICE Cal 2015 prices fell by 3.01% to EUR 25.325/MWh. o Norwegian flows partially recovered this morning, as Langeled flows jumped to 51 mm cm/day this morning and nominations are currently at 61 mm cm/day according to National Grid, while exports to the continent increased significantly. Rising temperatures in the UK led to a 10 mm cm drop in residential consumption compared to Tuesday, and above-average temperatures across Europe should further dampen demand over the next few days. Volatility in gas prices is likely to continue today, and any deterioration in the Ukrainian crisis could have a bullish effect. However, the risk premium could continue to erode today and prices could move closer to their pre-crisis level as fundamentals remain bearish. Far curve contracts could continue to soften, although the drop could be more limited than yesterday.
Posted on: Wed, 05 Mar 2014 11:03:51 +0000
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