Will Turkey pull the plug? JOOST LAGENDIJK It would be an understatement to say that today we are facing an unprecedented breach of trust between Turkey and the EU. Ever since the first round of police brutality in and around Gezi Park, the Turkish government and EU institutions have been in a war of words that has spiraled totally out of control. First, Stefan Füle, the EU Commissioner responsible for enlargement, who made it clear Turkey should respect the rights of its citizens to demonstrate peacefully, was lambasted by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in a very rude way. The thing that really caused several ministers to foam with anger was a resolution of the European Parliament that expressed deep concern at what was called “disproportionate and excessive use of force by the Turkish police in its response to the peaceful and legitimate protest in Istanbul’s Gezi Park.” It was a blunder from the parliament not to refer to those demonstrators that were not so peaceful, but the reactions of the government were, again, disproportionate and excessive. The prime minister said he did not recognize the EP, and some of his colleagues said it was none of the parliament’s business. All seemed deliberately to have forgotten that it is the task of the EP to follow each accession process critically, and if deemed necessary, to express its opinion. If Turkey does not recognize that right, it might as well step out of the whole process because, for sure, this resolution will not to be the last one. It looked as if Egemen Bağış, Turkey’s chief negotiator was preparing the ground for such a radical move when he told some EU countries “to get lost.” It was an incendiary reaction to the speculation that Germany might block the opening of a new chapter in the upcoming week. Everybody knows that potential step from Berlin is motivated by electoral opportunism. But there is also the misguided calculation that sending this message will encourage and strengthen protesters in Turkey. Unfortunately, the opposite is true: It will invigorate all those in and outside the government who reject any foreign interference, and it will weaken the demands for more European-style democracy in Turkey. After all this EU bashing, some observers think the Turkish government has had enough of it and might be asking for a formal suspension of the accession talks. Just to prevent any misunderstanding, let me tell you what the consequences will be if an angry Turkey indeed opts for a temporary stop to the talks. No such scenario is foreseen in the Negotiating Framework, the set of rules on the basis of which Turkey and the EU are negotiating about full membership. The only option mentioned in that document is when the EU decides to suspend the talks in the case of a “serious and persistent breach” by Turkey of the principles on which the EU is founded. But that is not what we are talking about here because it would be Turkey pulling the plug, not the EU. Nobody knows for sure what to do in that case as there are no prescribed procedures. It is obvious that the negotiations would be stopped temporarily until Turkey decides to come back to the table. It is also clear that some EU member states that have always been against Turkey’s EU membership would be very happy if Turkey would walk out now. In case Turkey one day decides it wants to resume the accession talks, these same countries will use every procedural trick in the book or politically motivated excuse to postpone such a resumption indefinitely or make it extremely unattractive for Turkey to do so. In other words: If Turkey walks out now, it will most probably be forever. I am sure the EU opponents in Turkey and the Turkophobics in Europe will be delighted. Their dreams would finally come true because Turkey’s leaders got carried away and lost their temper. However, on behalf of all those who would consider this to be the nightmare scenario that would slow down democratic reforms in Turkey even further and cause unforeseen economic and financial instability, may I ask one simple question: Is it too much to ask for some common sense and anger-management in Ankara?
Posted on: Sun, 23 Jun 2013 06:18:22 +0000
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