With Compromises, a Global Accord to Fight Climate Change Is in Sight: LIMA, Peru - Diplomats from 196 countries are closing in on the framework of a potentially historic deal that would for the 1st time commit every nation in the world to cutting its planet-warming fossil fuel emissions - but would still not be enough to stop the early impacts of global warming. The draft, now circulating among negotiators at a global climate summit mtg here, represents a fundamental breakthrough in the impasse that has plagued the UN for 2 decades as it has tried to forge a new treaty to counter global warming. But the key to the political success of the draft - & its main shortcoming, negotiators concede - is that it does not bind nations to a single, global benchmark for emissions reductions. Instead, the draft puts forward lower, more achievable, policy goals. Under the terms of the draft, every country will publicly commit to enacting its own plans to reduce emissions - w/ govts choosing their own targets, guided by their domestic politics, rather than by the amounts that scientists say are necessary. The idea is to reach a global deal to be signed by world leaders in Paris next yr, incorporating 196 separate emissions pledges. It’s a breakthrough, because it gives meaning to the idea that every country will make cuts, said Yvo de Boer, the former exec sec of the UNs Convention on Climate Change. But the great hopes for the process are also gone, he added. Many people are resigned to the likelihood that even a historic new deal would not reduce greenhouse gas levels enough to keep the planet’s atmospheric temp from rising 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. That is the point at which, scientists say, it will become impossible to avoid the dangerous & costly early effects of climate change - such as melting glaciers, rising sea levels, extreme drought, food shortages & more violent storms. The Lima draft represents the input of all the negotiating countries, though there are still several major hurdles to work out. But even then, experts say, at best the new deal might be enough only to curb global warming by about 1/2 as much as scientists say is necessary. Until recently, the US & China, the world’s 2 lgest greenhouse gas polluters, have been at the center of the impasse over a climate deal. Until this yr, the US had never arrived at the UNs annual climate negotiations w/ a domestic policy to cut its own carbon emissions. Instead, it merely demanded that other nations cut their use of coal & gasoline, while promising that it would do so in the future. China, meanwhile, was the lead voice among nations demanding that developing economies should not be required to commit to any cuts. But in Nov, Pres Obama & Pres Xi Jinping announced plans to reduce emissions, helping inject new life into the global climate talks. Negotiators here call the joint announcement between China & the US the catalyst for the new draft, which, if approved at the climate summit mtg this wk, would set the stage for a final deal to be signed by world leaders next yr in Paris. In the UNs’ 1st effort to enact a climate change treaty, the 97 Kyoto Protocol, the legally binding language of the agreement prescribed that the world’s largest economies make ambitious, specific emissions cuts - but it exempted developing nations. The US Senate refused to ratify the treaty, effectively leaving it a failure. The Lima draft does not include Kyoto-style, top-down mandates that countries cut emissions by specific levels. Instead, it incls provisions requiring that all nations, rich & poor, commit to policies to mitigate their emissions. Countries that sign on to the deal will commit to announcing, by March, detailed, hard-nos plans laying out how they will cut emissions after 2020. The draft that emerges this week will look like a game of Mad Libs, said 1 negotiator who was not authorized to speak publicly. Over the coming mos, as countries put forth their emissions reduction pledges, the details of the final deal will be filled in. It is expected that many countries will miss that March deadline. Officials from India & other countries have said that they are unlikely to present a plan before June. In order to ensure that all countries are incld in the deal, late announcers will get a pass. The point, UN officials say, is to ensure that the information exists to finalize a Paris deal by Dec 2015. Negotiators concede that the each according to their abilities” approach is < perfect - but that it represents what is achievable. The reality of it is that nobody was able to come up with a different way of going about it that would actually get countries to participate & be in the agreement, said Todd Stern, the lead American climate change negotiator. You could write a paper, in theory, assigning a certain amount of emissions cuts to every country. That would get the reduction you need. But you wouldn’t get an agreement. We live in the real world. It’s not going to be perfect. And there are still many hurdles ahead. While many major developing economies are now expected to follow China’s lead in preparing emissions plans, some countries remain wild cards. This year, the govt of Australia repealed a landmark climate change law that taxed carbon pollution. Since then, its emissions have soared. Australia is left w/out any viable policy to cut emissions, said Senator Christine Milne, the leader of the Australian opposition Green Party. It’s going to drag its heels. Money, as always, is a sticking point. The increasing likelihood that the planet’s atmosphere will warm past the 3.6 degree threshold, with or without a deal in Paris, is driving demands by vulnerable nations - particularly island states & African countries - that the industrialized world open up its wallet to pay for the damage incurred by its fossil fuel consumption. Under the terms of a 2009 climate change accord reached in Copenhagen, rich countries have agreed to mobilize $100 billion annually by 2020 to help poor countries adapt to the ravages of climate change. But a report this mo by the UN Environmental Program ests that the cost to poor countries of adapting to climate change could rise to as high as $300 billion annually - & vulnerable countries are stepping up their demands that more $ be incld in any final deal. Many vulnerable & developing countries insist that each country’s natl pledge include not just a plan to cut emissions, but also $ for adaptation. The financing question will be one of the deepest divides, said Jennifer Morgan, an expert in climate change negotiations w/ the World Resources Inst, a research org. Another element to be hashed out by negotiators will be devising an international number-crunching system to monitor, verify & compare countries’ pledged emissions cuts. China has always balked at any outside monitoring of its major economic sectors, & is pushing back on proposals for rigorous outside scrutiny. Hong Lei, a spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said that his country always supports increasing transparency but that the new reporting system should reflect the reality that developing countries’ basic capacities in areas like natl statistics & assessment are still insufficient. He added that developed countries should provide appropriate support to developing countries. The US has urged that a final deal not take the form of a legally binding treaty requiring Senate ratification, hoping to avoid a repeat of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol experience. But many countries continue to press for a legally binding deal. French officials have already given the yet-to-be-signed deal a working title: the “Paris Alliance. The name, they say, is meant to signify that many different economies are working together, rather than complying with a single, top-down mandate. nytimes/2014/12/10/world/with-compromises-a-global-accord-to-fight-climate-change-is-in-sight.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&smid=fb-nytimes&bicmst=1409232722000&bicmet=1419773522000&smtyp=aut&bicmp=AD&bicmlukp=WT.mc_id&_r=1
Posted on: Thu, 11 Dec 2014 15:23:18 +0000
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