Wow...Latest Language from the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma: These guys have their PhDs in Severe Weather and Supercells... NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA FOR HUNTINGTON AND CHARLESTON WV AT 21Z/SUN SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC AND SHEAR PROFILES. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES INCREASING INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WITH SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN DISCRETE CELLS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY EVEN AS STORM COVERAGE INCREASES AND CELL MERGERS OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES IN THE 300 TO 400 M2/S2 SUGGESTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO BE WHERE THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET INTERSECTS THE LOW-LEVEL JET IN OH...ERN KY AND WV. A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELL STORMS. ANY STORM THAT CAN ROTATE WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD ALSO IMPACT THE SRN GREAT LAKES AND PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT INCREASING ACROSS MD AND PA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Jul 2014 17:38:59 +0000
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