X-Class Solar Flare & Geomagnetic Storm Watch on December 20th, 2014: According to TESIS Sun Flare monitor (GOES-15) we took a total of 11 Solar Flares yesterday (Dec. 19), with the largest being of M1.3-Class intensity out of Active Region 2242 at 09:44 UTC yesterday morning. So far today, TESIS has recorded just one Solar Flare: a X1.8-Class Flare at 00:28 UTC from AR 2242; Active Region 2242 has been responsible for all 12 Solar Flares from the Earth-facing portion of the the Solar Disc over the past 36 hours. The X1.8-Class Solar Flare from AR 2242 created a strong R3 level Radio Blackout, as the near-instantaneous effects of the X-Ray Flux cooked the Earths Ionosphere, which is always visible on NOAAs D-Rap Absorption Map. Dr. Tony Phillips, of SpaceWeather, is waiting to confirm an Earth directed CME: X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR2242 erupted on Saturday, Dec. 20th @ 00:27 UT, producing an intense X1.8-class solar flare. This picture taken by NASAs Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a plume of material flying away from the blast site… Radio emissions from shock waves rippling through the suns atmosphere suggest that a CME is en route. However, we are still waiting for data from SOHO coronagraphs to confirm the existence and trajectory of a massive storm cloud. If a CME is coming, it will probably take 2 to 3 days to reach Earth. There has already been one Earth-effect: Extreme UV radiation from the flare ionized our planets upper atmosphere and blacked out HF radio communications over Australia and the South Pacific. Below 10 MHz, transmissions were strongly attenuated for more than two hours. Stay tuned for updates. Solar flare alerts:text, voice… Read, See More: spaceweather/archive.php?view=1&day=20&month=12&year=2014 Ben reported in yesterdays news, 2 CMEs Coming, Disaster Report | S0 News December 19, 2014, that two CMEs were already in route to Earth. And today, NOAAs Forecast Discussion reflects this fact: G1 (minor) geomagnetic storms are possible on 20 Dec. in response to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 17 Dec. G1 (minor) to G2 (moderate) geomagnetic storms are possible on 21 Dec in response to the anticipated arrival of a CME from 18 Dec. G1 conditions may linger into 22 Dec. Read, See More: swpc.noaa.gov/communities/space-weather-enthusiasts 2 CMEs Coming, Disaster Report | S0 News Dec. 19, 2014 https://youtube/watch?v=bls9mPJw36I Active Space Weather conditions favor the Equinoxes and Solstices, with Winter Solstice occurring tomorrow (December 21st). Once again, it will be interesting to make note of some of the effects of G1-Minor, and G2-Moderate, Geomagnetic Storms, according to NOAAs Storm Scales: G1-Minor: Weak power grid fluctuations can occur…Minor impact on satellite operations possible…Migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels… G2-Moderate: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long duration storms may cause transformer damage…Corrective actions to spacecraft operations orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions…HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55* geomagnetic latitude). Keep your eyes peeled for any potentially relevant news articles! In the meantime, heres a check of the SpaceWeather parameters near Earth: ACE Solar Wind Telemetry shows that the speed (yellow) is averaging out around 355 km/s, while the density (orange) is normal between 3 to 4 protons/cm^3 as of 07:58 UTC this morning. The Phi Angle (blue component) shows a predominantly positive (away from the Sun flow) magnetic sector, while the Bz (red) component of the Earths magnetic field began tipping south (again) as of 07:00 UTC, with a maximum of -5. NOAAs Estimated Planetary K-Index kicked off the day with an Active Kp-3, which has since calmed to a Kp-2. Both GOES Magnetometer and Electron Flux are a bit choppy, deviating a little from the normal, smooth curves; still waiting for the CMEs to impact these metrics. The Sunspot Number is down to 156 today, it was up at 168 yesterday (Dec. 19) and was down at 154 on December 18th. NOAAs Forecasters are predicting a 75% chance of M-Flares and a 25% chance of X-Flares over the next 24-48 hours. Image Sources: spaceweather/ geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/ n3kl.org/sun/noaa.html bbc/news/uk-30454240 swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation neutronm.bartol.udel.edu//spaceweather/welcome.html swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind space-env.esa.int/index.php/Daily-Sun-Spot-Number.html swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aviation-community-dashboard Riometer Data: irf.se//Observatory/?link=Riometers Schuhmann Resonance Data: sosrff.tsu.ru/new/shm.jpg NOAAs New Space Weather Prediction Center https://youtube/watch?v=Q2wOZatS_wk Space Weather Homepage: swpc.noaa.gov/ Solar Flares: swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-x-ray-flux Solar Wind: swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind KP Index: swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index Electron Flux: swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-electron-flux Proton Flux: swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-proton-flux Magnetometer: swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Yesterdays News: https://youtube/watch?v=bls9mPJw36I Daily News: suspicious0bserverscollective.org/daily-news.html Evening News: suspicious0bservers.org/premium/ Space Weather & Geomagnetic Storms - Headaches, Changes in BP suspicious0bserverscollective.org/the-blog/space-weather-geomagnetic-storms-headaches-changes-in-blood-pressure Geomagnetic Storms - Definitions, Consequences & Research Notes suspicious0bserverscollective.org/the-blog/geomagnetic-storms-definition-consequences-research-notes Space Weather & Heart Health: Geomagnetic Storms vs. Zero Level GMA suspicious0bserverscollective.org/the-blog/space-weather-heart-health-geomagnetic-storms-vs-zero-level-gma1 Solar Sector Boundary Crossing - Research Notes suspicious0bserverscollective.org/the-blog/solar-sector-boundary-crossing-on-february-1st-2014-research-notes
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 09:13:26 +0000
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