YOU WIN SOME, YOU LOSE SOME: This has been on my mind a lot today and I wondered whether or not I should even address it. I mean, a forecast is just that...a forecast. Whether its a weather forecast, a five-year-plan, or a financial forecast, its called a forecast because it might very well be wrong. Just like anyone else, I dont like to be wrong but its safe to say thats unavoidable ;) However, when I am wrong I want to know why and I want others to know why too. So, I thought Id talk a little about yesterdays forecast bust, if you will. Sunday morning it looked as though we had the potential for strong storms during the early-evening. I talked about it a lot on Facebook and on TV. I thought wed have the necessary energy or fuel. I also thought storms in Kentucky/Ohio/Indiana would cross the mountains. It was a tricky one, for sure. What I saw in the models that we use to bring you an accurate forecast told me we could have seen some stormy weather. So, why didnt we? A lot of it had to do with persistent cloud cover that just wouldnt break up until later in the day. If clouds had broken up as soon as Id originally thought, prolonged periods of sun would have supplied us with some of the energy necessary to fuel those forecast storms. The weakening complex of showers and storms that came through during the morning also helped to stabilize things. The clouds did clear eventually but it was too late in the game and the bad weather didnt come to fruition. Honestly, I dont think thats a bad thing AT ALL. Id much rather be wrong and we have a nice day than be wrong and we get caught off guard with bad weather. I hope that you got to get outside and enjoy the dry afternoon and I hope youre enjoying a breezy, warm Monday :)
Posted on: Mon, 28 Jul 2014 17:34:00 +0000
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