Yes, a strong cold front will push south across the country next week. And yes, theres already a lot of social media hype regarding this cold front. Heres what I know. This could be the coldest air so far this season and much of the country could have their first freeze. BUT...theres a lot of uncertainty regarding the intensity of the cold air and how far south the freeze line gets. The American GFS forecast model (first map below) shows temps in the 30s north of Houston by Thursday morning. But thats only part of the story. The European ECMWF model (second map) shows temperatures only dropping in the mid 40s around Houston. Not nearly as cold (or exciting) as the GFS model. Another thing I look at are the ensemble forecast models. The 51 members of the ECMWF Ensemble have a >25-degree spread for the low temperature Thursday morning! That means we shouldnt have a lot of confidence in the data at this point. One more thought. Our normal low temperature in mid November is in the low 50s. Temperatures in the 40s or even the upper 30s is colder than normal, but not unprecedented.
Posted on: Thu, 06 Nov 2014 19:37:56 +0000
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