Zeroing onto Ground Zero Lt Gen PC Katoch, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SC (Retd) The news about Barack Obama pondering over the ‘zero option’ of withdrawing all US forces from Afghanistan by end 2014 is no surprise. In fact this was expected and perhaps the original plan when the sudden decision was taken in 2009 to boost the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and scoot. There is no doubt that options must have been mulled over at the time of invading Afghanistan but plans of the Bush administration like ‘regime change’, axis of evil and what have you failed miserably – not that the current regime change efforts in Iraq have come full circle. Then came the realization that the Al Qaeda-Haqqanis-Taliban were as elusive as US policies and neither the Soviets nor the US could win in Vietnam and Afghanistan, with US defeated twice – Vietnam and Afghanistan. Moreover, despite the overwhelmingly technological and weaponry superiority and preponderance of US forces in Afghanistan, US continues to suffer casualties even in the heart of Kabul inclusive of the so called safe/green zones. So, one can visualize what will be the scene post 2014 – fortress or no fortress with Taliban categorical they want all foreign troops out of Afghanistan. Here even if 250-300 troops are left behind for ‘training’, as in Iraq reportedly without Congressional sanction, they will continue to be targeted by Taliban. So, how would the body bags ‘in support role’ then get justified to the American public? The factors that point clearly to the zero option aimed at plunging the region into chaos are many. To start with, of the total $641.7 billion available since 2002 in US spending for war in Afghanistan up to 31 March 2013, US spent some 30 percent ($198.2 billion) only during financial year 2012-2013, all of which did not reach the ground because of corruption along the line – both US and Afghan. Then, almost total aid went towards the ANSF and not on development of Afghanistan or to alleviate Afghanistan to any semblance of economic upgrade before the withdrawal. Expansion of the ANSF was done in great hurry amidst periodic reports of desertions. Though annual desertion rates of 26 percent in the ANA and 8 percent in ANP may well be inflated, John Glaser commented in AntiWar on 18 Dec, 2012, saying, “Thousands of Afghan soldiers are deserting the army in a sign that the US-led effort to train security forces before the 2014 withdrawal date is not the triumph US officials have been trying to claim ….. this daily reality …… counters the “rosy picture” Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta and top US military officials have been painting… Most experts predict that either the Afghan government will collapse or the country will descend into civil war following the partial US withdrawal in 2014.” Then there were reports earlier this year of a US supported militia headed by a Hazara deliberately destroying houses, raping women and murdering dozens of Pashtuns in the southern province of Uruzgan. A New Zealand national working for an NGO in Afghanistan also reported that a host of private security organizations, most funded and supported through US contractors, had suddenly been pumped up with RPGs and machine guns that he found very strange. As to the terror factories in Pakistan, these were never really targeted directly aside from periodic Predator strikes that eliminated few leaders of Al Qaeda-Haqqanis-Taliban causing voids that were filled almost immediately. The main action of liquidating the terror bases inside Pakistan was left to Pakistan itself with billions of dollars in aid on account of GWOT; hoping the serpent will smother what it spawned. Well serpents are known to eat their own eggs and even siblings just born but never full grown ones. Actually the reverse is likely in the latter case, which appears happening in Pakistan. So Pakistan continued with the façade of hitting bases in FATA and US looked the other way despite anxious voices in the US that were ignored. Interestingly, the Belfer Center of the Harvard Kennedy School in 2009 had had pointed to clear evidence of misuse of USAID to Pakistan citing proof: US provided $1.5 million to reimburse Pakistan for damage to Navy vehicles which had never been used in combat; $15 million for Pakistani army bunkers that were never built; $30 million for Pakistani road‐building but no evidence of construction; $55 million for helicopter maintenance of national fleet that was not performed; Pakistan military received $80 million per month for military operations during ceasefire periods when troops were in barracks; Musharraf once complained army helicopters needed more spare parts and support, despite US having provided $8 million worth of Cobra parts over previous six months; “great majority” of the Coalition Support Funds given by the US to reimburse Pakistan for counterterrorism operations was found diverted; US officials visiting FATA found Pakistani Frontier Corps units poorly equipped, soldiers wearing sandals in snow, wearing World War I era pith helmets and carrying barely functional Kalashnikov rifles with “just 10 rounds of ammunition each”. But what takes the cake are the talks with the Taliban and the Haqqanis over power sharing in Afghanistan, which proves beyond doubt that US had already decided in 2009 to revert Afghanistan to pre US invasion state. These talks are the sweet cucumber offered by Kiyani, which US grasped in the feint hope that their exit would be reasonably peaceful. The talks were doomed from the start as there is no meeting ground whatsoever, and to that end it is a façade. Even if a small faction would put up for political power sharing, they would renege any time – you don’t need Sun Tzu to tell you this. In any event they have categorically refused to lay down arms and stop targeting US troops. In fact, attacks on US forces would most likely redouble with these terrorist organizations witness the pleadings of a super power. The miscalculation perhaps on the part of US has been that the Haqqanis and Taliban would acquiesce to ceasefire and peaceful withdrawal from Afghanistan considering the US is actually helping Al Qaeda embed in Middle East by arming them in Libya and Syria. This bonanza, the Al Qaeda could never have imagined who were busy establishing firm base in Africa should the heat in Pakistan become unbearable. Ditto for Taliban, who were being targeted and now are being handed over Afghanistan on a platter. Both these organizations smell outright victory and Afghanistan as a prize. US may use them as proxies in Syria and elsewhere but come to think of it, have they become essential to the US in absence of ‘no boots on ground’ doctrine. Additionally, it is good effort to portray US fiascos by projecting that the problem in Afghanistan is merely India-Pakistan animosity. This can’t cover the ‘great game’, the players and US machinations – is Brookings listening? Robert Blackwell inadvertently blurted the plan for dividing Afghanistan – it was the original plan! Why the withdrawal was planned ignoring elections in Afghanistan during 2014 and without giving any time to the new government to stabilize, is quite apparent. So what does the US get out of the zero option? There are no US economic investments in Afghanistan, so there is no worry on that count. The region in turmoil is good to stalemate Chinese advance to the India Ocean. For a similar reason, the Taliban were created in the first place to ensure that the Soviets don’t cross the Afghanistan borders and reach the Indian Ocean. Chinese do have considerable investments in CAR and Afghanistan, whose security will definitely be threatened, so what happens to the security void? Russia is unlikely to commit troops unless its interests in CAR are directly threatened. But if the Chinese are pressured enough to commit the PLA (SCO-CSTO deployments being unlikely, that would be just great. Would also provide an opportunity to friends Al Qaeda-Haqqanis-Taliban to bleed and defeat another budding superpower. Dr Subhash Kapila wrote in his article ‘US Strategic Blunders in Southwest Asia’ on 18 March 2013, “Strategically, the US cannot expect to sustain a long-term and effective presence in South West Asia by a constant and vicious demonization of Iran……… Iran commands the Shia Crescent extending from Lebanon, through Syria and to the borders of Afghanistan…… the current de-stabilization of Syria through a US-Saudi Arabia contrived war is more targeted at Iran than Syria.” So, if the Taliban-Haqqanis-Al Qaeda can take the Sunni-Shia War into Iran, what better prize for the US. This could be down south from Helmand or via Baluchistan. Since reports of Taliban already entering Baluchistan through the Afghan border can no more be hidden, best to blame the turmoil in Baluchistan on India. The handover to ANSF originally was scheduled for 2014 but was advanced to 2013. There is already speculation in the US to cut the US aid to Pakistan by half next year. But in case of zero option, which itself may get advanced to early 2013 / mid 2014, US might as well cease it altogether unless the Obama administration want Pakistan even more terror, having provided the strategic depth. This again, would help consume the serpent in reply to all the western blood spilled in Afghanistan, added advantage being the automatic ignition in Xinjiang. Meanwhile, it is good to write on issues like India’s missile program etc breaking the economy of Pakistan and India not realizing what break up of Pakistan will do to India. Well look at it this way, If terrorism and radicalization are going to break Pakistan, it is the US support which is squarely responsible for it. Those warning India need to read up on history. Pakistan has broken up in the past and India has coped with the situation. Should a second break up happen, India has the capacity to deal with the situation adequately. What US scholars need to think about is the consequences of supporting radicalism and terrorism in Pakistan. Americans who saw the bearded fellow firing a nuke on the US in the movie ‘Nostradamus’ perhaps visualize him as Iranian but he just might be a Pakistani triggering it inside the US. Prakash Katoch is veteran Special Forces and Council Member of USI. (Article uploaded on July 30, 2013).
Posted on: Tue, 30 Jul 2013 10:09:53 +0000
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