“Zimbabwe Going Forward: Opportunities and Constraints” Conference organized by Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI) and Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) Meikles Hotel, Harare, Thursday 23rd October 2014 Climate change: aligning policy and residual knowledge with practice in Zimbabwe Sub-theme “Disaster Reduction and Emergencies – Preparing for climate change eventualities” Dr. Strike Mkandla, Alternate Secretary General (ASG), ZAPU The invitation to make a presentation at this conference started off by observing that Zimbabwe is confronted with many challenges one year after the July 2013 elections. The invitation note then explicitly asked the panel to deal with the issue of how Zimbabwe’s current government is dealing with these problems and, going forward, what should be done. Scope of the presentation The sub-theme guides us to focus on reduction of disasters and emergencies that arise from or will become more pronounced as the result of climate change. This nuance is important because there is always a risk of collapsing all nature-based disasters as “natural” whereas in this discussion we are concerned with the evolving change in climate that has been and continues to be precipitated by human activity (the so-called “anthropogenic” factors). In practice, disaster risk reduction (DRR) and responses may not be disaggregated because disaster preparedness can mitigate the impacts of emergencies regardless of source. In terms of focus: 1. This paper will not dwell on the impacts of climate change on agriculture and natural resources because the presentation on rural development and food security impacts will do that. 2. The paper will also not attempt to cover climate projections and extremes (the subject of another conference paper) except by passing reference to how such projections and extremes inform the country’s preparedness (or lack thereof) to deal with climate related disasters and emergences. 3. The paper will explore the links between and among the different levels of Zimbabwe’s attention to policy and programmatic issues arising from climate change and its consequences (at the global, continental, regional, national and local levels). Hopefully, this should simply underline that there is more than enough understanding of the projected impacts of climate change and what needs to be done to mitigate its impact, design appropriate adaptation strategies, and above all put in place adequate systems and a policy framework for dealing with climate-induced disasters and emergencies that can only increase in frequency in the short and medium-term. 4. The presentation will not dwell on the likely (varied) impacts of climate change-induced disasters and emergencies on all sectors, but just point out that population sectors such as the poor face more hardship on account of vulnerability of the majority that rely heavily on rain-fed agriculture (affected alternately in floods and droughts) and have less access to services in the event of disasters and emergencies. Women form a substantial part of the rural population dependant on agriculture so they are disproportionately affected, even before taking account of their roles that leave them responsible for children and the aged. 5. The paper does not try to deal comprehensively with the impact of climate-induced disasters on towns, cities and other densely populated human settlements, but given the rapid urbanization of Africa that will no doubt be more pronounced in Zimbabwe as well in due course, these settlements need to reduce their contribution to climate change. More importantly in the context of this paper, because human settlements are not only great consumers of resources like energy and water they need to be part of the solution and can play a great role in developing mitigation approaches and promoting uptake of adaptation technologies. There are interesting links here between urban areas and industries that can fast-track the economically viable and potentially lucrative adoption of cleaner, more environment- friendly technologies. There are also established low-level technologies that communities can use as part of their coping strategies with energy and water stress, thereby lessening dependence on vulnerable, centralized facilities. 6. When addressing the problem of disaster reduction and emergencies the paper mainly refers to rapid events that lead to displacement and physical danger to humans, whereas climate-induced disasters are much wider because changes in eco-systems and ecological zones may have impacts that amount to disasters in areas like vector-borne disease, nature and biodiversity conservation, and others important for human existence and well-being of the environment. 7. Last but not least, the presentation suggests that policy on disasters and emergencies attributable to climate change is not a stand-alone but part of the wider web of governance issues, because choices will either be facilitated or constrained by such policy. Also, the implementation of such a policy is more important than its existence because accountability to affected populations, communities and regions has to be built-in. In present-day Zimbabwe this implies the most progressive interpretation of the constitutional provisions for devolution of power. From the local to the global and vice-versa More than any other single issue, climate change poses a major challenge to the whole world for the simple reason that global warming is effecting change in eco-systems everywhere and ultimately threatening life as we know it. However the Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which include most of Africa and Zimbabwe, face the biggest challenges because of their relatively limited capacity to cope with the changes. That Africa accounts for less than 4% of the concentration of greenhouse gases (particularly carbon dioxide) in the atmosphere that are responsible for global warming makes a compelling case that informs the continent’s negotiating position in global platforms like the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its Kyoto Protocol. Prior to the first global conference on climate change held in Stockholm in 1972, many of the challenges arising from climate change were discussed in non-governmental forums. The global inter-governmental system driven by the United Nations henceforth provided an important platform for an increasing number of stakeholders to join forces as more and more sectors came to realize the pervasive impact of climate change on practically all areas of socio-economic existence. The period since the Stockholm Conference (that incidentally gave birth to the United Nations Environment Programme – UNEP) has seen a plethora of United Nations and other environment Conventions, Agreements and action plans at global and regional level. Zimbabwe joined all relevant ones and was instrumental in the creation of some. Why is this important? Policy existence and policy coherence: the need for a holistic policy framework Zimbabwe has been a vibrant player at various levels in the international environmental arena: at the technical level (negotiators and experts in the drafting and shaping of agreements and commitments), at the sector inter-state policy level (in ministerial forums such as the African Ministerial Conference on Environment [AMCEN], the African Ministers’ Council on Water [AMCOW] and others dealing with energy, agriculture, housing and urbanization, disaster reduction, meteorology, etc), and at the continental and global summits (here most notably the African Union’s Conference of African Heads of State on Climate Change [CAHOSCC] but also in various governing bodies of United Nations agencies and programmes to make binding and/or voluntary commitments individually and collectively). At the regional level Zimbabwe is party to processes, instruments and agreements in the context of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) and the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA). African governments, with active participation of Zimbabwe have been increasingly taking a continental view of climate-induced disasters and emergencies for over a decade. African ministers responsible for disaster risk reduction met under the auspices of the African Union in 2005 a regional strategy. This was followed in 2006 by the development and adoption of a Program of Action for the implementation of this Strategy (2006-2010. The Program of Action was then replaced with the Extended Program of Action for the implementation of the Africa Regional Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (2006-2015) in 2010 which is in line with the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 2005-2015. The point about Zimbabwe’s numerous and multi-level commitments and activism sketched above is to remind us that the country has been a source of policy prescriptions and also an implementer on the ground in relevant sectors. Global norms and targets such as the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and latterly the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have shaped cooperation with development partners and the framing of programmes, projects and activities at the national and local levels. By nature and design the Common Country Assessment and the UN Development Assistance Framework (CCA/UNDAF) is one of the few that is informed by a multi-level and inter-agency approach to tackle ramifications of individual policies and their interplay. Even such a comprehensive programme would benefit from a standing policy guide from which to derive interventions with medium and long-term relevance to national priorities. It is intriguing that as of 2014 Zimbabwe is just about to finalize a National Climate Policy. Since the country became independent in 1980 and immediately got immersed in the politics and economics of climate change and related implications for development prospects, why has it taken Zimbabwe over thirty-four years to come up with such a national policy? One educated guess is that the pressure to respond to the myriad follow-ups to global and regional commitments has taken precedence over a holistic and home-grown perspective on challenges and opportunities arising from climate change. The need for reversing the drivers of policy formulation is well-captured in the reported remarks of Mr. Prince Mupazviriwo that, “The Government is now focusing on developing a National Climate Policy to guide key sectors and promote mainstreaming of climate and climate change issues into our national development plans and day-to-day activities”. The harmonization and consequent fine-tuning of sector policies and strategies will no doubt facilitate identification of synergies between and among sectors in terms of disaster preparedness and reducing the impact of climate-change induced disasters. This is important because challenges identified in some sectors may find ready solutions in others. This will be covered as we respond to the conference question, “what should be done”? Climate change, disaster reduction and preparedness for emergencies Cyclical changes in weather patterns have brought floods and droughts in some areas of Zimbabwe. These normal events may be getting exacerbated by climate change which is expected to intensify extreme weather events and rainfall variability. This sets a formidable agenda for disaster management and for disaster risk reduction. Going by reports in the aftermath of the floods that hit Tokwe-Mukosi and Tsholotsho areas in 2013-2014, the response from the country’s services was not equal to the task. Some have suggested that explanation for the slow and inadequate response to the flood disasters lies in the area of policy. As one observation has it, “the biggest undoing has been lack of clear-cut national policy and strategy to deal with such catastrophes”. Beyond the local and national arena, disaster reduction management (DRM) in the region does receive some level of regional cooperation in the framework of the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC). This entails disaster preparedness, response, rehabilitation and recovery. Even here, the regional body’s Disaster Risk Reduction Unit charged with trans-boundary hazards and disasters faces challenges that sound familiar when one looks at those faced by countries, namely: • Under-funding and lack of coordination • Lack of comprehensive, updated risk assessment and analysis • Weak information and knowledge management systems • Reducing underlying risk factors. It should be noted that the problems cited above do not include the absence of a mechanism, because in 2011 the region set up the SADC Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction and also has a Climate Services Center. At the continental level countries from the region actively participated in the first African Union Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in 2005 that has become a regular feature. At the global level various UN organizations that deal with aspects of disasters in their mandates have come up with a UN Plan of Action on DRR for Resilience, but there is backstopping for both crafting early warning and for emergency response from the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), to name two. Thus there is a chain of institutions, action plans and frameworks that can be tapped to overcome some of the problems identified above. Improving adaptation and increasing mitigation of climate change in the energy sector in Zimbabwe Historically the old industrialized countries (the ones dubbed the “Annex 1” countries in the global climate change negotiations) are responsible for the bulk of carbon dioxide and other green house gasses in the atmosphere, the cause of climate change. Africa and other Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are adamant and it has been accepted that the industrialized countries should play a role commensurate to their contribution to the problem, what has been enshrined in the famous principle of “common but differentiated responsibility”. Indeed, the pitiful figures of access to grid power and clean energy attest to the fact that countries like Zimbabwe are more victim than culprit in the incidence of climate-induced disasters traceable to industrial pollution, and emissions from transport and intensive livestock farming. Less than 10 per cent of the rural population in sub-Saharan Africa has access to modern energy services, while just over 20 per cent of the total population is connected to electric power supply (AfDB, 2008). As a result, energy provision remains one of Africa’s principal development challenges. However, climate change is likely to compromise energy development, especially hydropower, which represents 45 per cent of electric power generation in sub-Saharan Africa (Bates et al., 2008). The commercial energy sector in Zimbabwe is dominated by electricity, while fuel wood provides the bulk of energy for domestic use in rural areas. Most of the electricity is produced by the Kariba dam with a capacity to generate 750 MW (40 per cent of national supply), Hwange thermal power station (46 per cent of national supply), Harare thermal power station (5 per cent of national supply), Bulawayo thermal power station (4.5 per cent of national supply) and Munyati thermal power station (5 per cent of national supply). However, energy output has been compromised by recurrent electricity shortages over the past ten years. While national electricity demand is about 2.200 MW, only about 1200 MW is generated in Zimbabwe. Low water supply since 2007 has also meant that the Kariba hydro-power station is operating at only 87 per cent of its full capacity. Drought conditions created by climate change are expected to reduce run-off, further reducing the water levels required to support the operation of dams. The thermal powers station, especially in Hwange are also constantly failing due to outdated technology. This means, from a self-interest point of view, there should be serious re-think of over-reliance on traditional sources of power, even before Zimbabwe loses its window for pollution and has to adopt more stringent control of pollution from the power energy sector to play its part in global reduction of polluting sources. This also means getting into adaptation mode by anticipating the impact of climate change on hydro-power. This brings us to the issue of the need for Zimbabwe to intensify the mainstreaming of alternative energy sources as a way of hedging against reliance on a restricted energy pool that will also be vulnerable to climate change. Water – source of life and vehicle of disasters and emergencies The African water sector has produced some of the catchiest slogans in environmental campaigns, such as “Count every drop, every drop counts”, and “water is life”. The absence of this vital resource (by way of droughts and pollution of potable water) and the excessive and sudden over-supply (by way of floods and inundation) make this the principal mode of climate related disasters. It is projected that climate change will cause Zimbabwe to be more vulnerable to droughts. It is estimated that while some water catchments in the country may experience reduced water levels, a substantial decrease is likely to be experienced across the whole country. The same analysis suggests that the yield of dams will decrease by about 30%-40%. If the same level of supply and reliability is desired, then there will be a need to either increase the storage of these dams or construct new ones. Increase in storage is not possible since all major dams are designed for their maximum yield. (Source: Zimbabwe’s Initial National Communication under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change – 1998) Drought has its greatest impact on water supplies. Lack of water affects every aspect of environmental health and human activity, including agriculture, biodiversity and its connections to tourism and stock of genetic resources as well as development projects. The 1991-1992 drought which ravaged most of southern Africa, killed more than one million cattle in Zimbabwe. During a drought, overgrazing leads to further degradation of pastures and arable areas in cattle farming areas. The deterioration of grazing capacity further reduces livestock numbers. In drier areas, scanty rainfall for a few years can kill vegetation permanently and poor land-practices only make it worse. The drop in water supplies in dams and rivers also affects the quality of water. The cholera outbreak that affected almost every country in the region during 1992 and 1993, claiming hundreds of lives, may have been compounded by the drought. Create urban mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change and avert disasters It has been pointed out already that Africa is experiencing rapid urbanization. What is germane here is that much of the trend is not a result of planning but a reflection of pressures associated with lack of attractive sources of livelihood in the rural areas particularly for the young. Climate change by way of rainfall variability may be an important driver. Over the past decade, urbanization has become synonymous with the rapid growth of informal settlements and slums in peri-urban areas. Zimbabwe’s slum prevalence, which was lowest in sub-Saharan Africa at 3.4 per cent of the urban population in 2001, has risen dramatically to 18% in 2006 (UN-Habitat, 2008). Much of this growth in informal settlements has been attributed to overcrowding due to influx of new arrivals and slow growth in the availability of planned housing. Notable examples include sections of Dzivarasekwa Extension, Caledonia and Hatcliffe in Harare where people have squatted on state-owned land. Such areas typically lack municipal trunk sewers, basic water and sanitation, roads and other forms of municipal infrastructure and services, which all play important roles in mediating disaster risks, especially in hazard-prone areas. Despite growing vulnerability in human settlements, urban policy in Zimbabwe does not explicitly address climate change. Outdated master plans have also failed to effectively regulate development, as demonstrated by the rapid growth of slums. Experts point to the lack of a national climate change framework as a primary reason for why climate change has not been properly integrated into policy. The hope is that such a policy will facilitate the building-in of resilience against climate-induced disasters that may be partly to blame for the migration patterns in the first place, and prevent cities from becoming reservoirs of potential epidemics and some areas becoming weak spots in the event of disasters. Tapping global commitments and processes for comprehensive national policies and strategies African countries and other developing countries have kept up with and shaped inter-governmental processes to ensure that their needs and priorities are safeguarded. In the case of the climate change, the UNFCCC requires the world’s 49 least developed countries (LDCs) (33 are in Africa) to undertake National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs), which are policy frameworks dedicated to the identification and prioritization of critically important adaptation activities for which further delay might increase vulnerability or lead to higher adaptation costs over the long term (Stringer et al., 2009).1 Zimbabwe ratified the UNFCCC in 1992 as well as the Kyoto Protocol in 2009. However, the 2011 Human Development Index (HDI) (UNDP, 2011) ranks Zimbabwe 173 out of 187 countries, just after Malawi and Afghanistan. In 2009, Zimbabwe began to prepare its Second National Communication (SNC) report, which is now complete. The report included vulnerability and adaptation assessments on the following sectors: ecosystems, human settlements, public health, water resources and wildlife (Madzwamuse, 2010). This will then form the basis for more specific action plans. Many LDCs are developing National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), which are the UNFCCC’s most recent attempt to build on the experience in preparing and implementing NAPAs with the goal of identifying medium- and long-term adaptation priorities and developing and implementing strategies that respond to those priorities (UNFCCC, 2012b). Zimbabwe has not been following this process, but the Climate Change Office within the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources Management has begun formal consultations to develop a ‘Climate Change Response Strategy’, involving other government ministries, civil society organizations (including those involved in the ‘Meeting Information and Advocacy needs for Climate Change Adaptation in Zimbabwe’ project which influenced some of the input used in this paper), academic institutions and the private sector. Currently, climate change is addressed by environmental legislation (mainly through the Environmental Management Act). However, it is widely recognized that such policies are insufficient in light of the projected impacts of climate change and the scale and scope of vulnerability. Climate change is widely treated as a secondary issue in policy and therefore does not receive adequate emphasis in terms of policy direction or resource allocation. This is consistent with many other developing countries, which tend to address climate change through a variety of fragmented sectoral policies, including those related to agriculture and food security, water resources management, natural resources management and disaster risk management (Chagutah, 2010). According to a study on climate governance by Heinrich Böll Stiftung in Botswana, Kenya, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, South Africa and Zimbabwe (Madzwamuse, 2010), a lack of appropriate legislative and policy frameworks inhibits the implementation of adaptation and constrains adaptive capacity in Zimbabwe (Chagutah, 2010). Moreover, current policy is heavily influenced by a strong rural-bias, which ignores longstanding urbanization trends. According to United Nations Department for Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) (2011), Zimbabwe’s urban population is 38 percent whilst current population estimates suggest that the country is now more than 50 percent urban (Chatiza et al., forthcoming). In response, Parnell and Simon (2010) argue that “demographic transitions in Africa now mean that the embedded urban policy positions of governments… are among the most important in determining the well-being of the population and also the continent’s economic and ecological resilience”. (pp. 47). For Parnell and Simon, embracing cities does not imply discarding the rural policy agenda, but implies that national climate and development policy frameworks should be developed to hinge on “complementary and differentiated urban and rural strategies” (pp. 47). Public awareness, capacity building and public participation Quite often, technical approaches to environmental interventions underestimate the value of buy-in by the public that has to be involved in implementation. This is (mis)informed by the assumption that what is good for the environment and sustainability is manifestly so for those who stand to benefit from intended results. However real people, preoccupied with bread and butter issues, often wish to see tangible benefits unless there is hope that their deferred enjoyment will pay off in a foreseeable future or at least guarantee the welfare of their offspring. Studies done in 11 COMESA countries showed that there was more lack of appreciation than understanding even at local government level of climate change and its mitigation through Clean Development initiatives. It is important therefore that national awareness-raising initiatives precede the crafting of policies that seek implementation supported by the general public, the more-so if the direct participation of the public is expected. The foregoing argument have been put to the test in field work done by Pragmaleaf Consulting in Gwabalanda township in the City of Bulawayo, based on an assignment commissioned by COMESA in 2012 to assess if the City of Bulawayo had capacity for a citywide waste-to-energy project that involved the community. In the exercise, local residents through resident structures attended training and information workshops that were a prelude to a behavioural change programme. The noted effect was that residents quickly embraced the concepts of recycling and separation at source once they had been given sufficient information and understood its benefits to their environment and community. As a result the programme is now due to be rolled out to 5000 households in the Ward. The Zimbabwe Environmental Law Association (ZELA) also emphasizes the fundamental importance of public participation and stakeholder involvement in the development of future climate change legislation. The Environmental Management Act states that every person “has a right to access environmental information and right to participate in promulgation and implementation of legislative, policy and other measures that prevent pollution and environmental degradation” (Mtisi, 2010). However, Zimbabwe’s environmental policy-making process has involved minimal engagement between civil society, policy-makers and the public (ibid). Although the SNC process has been described as highly participatory, no record of public engagement exists (Chagutah, 2010). As argued by McDevitt (2009), there is a danger that national adaptation strategies formulated without the participation of those intended to adopt the practices will limit rather than facilitate adaptation and potentially cause mal-adaptation. Moving from traditional sources and embracing energy diversification Extreme weather events have more dramatic consequences where there is loss of property and there are threats to humans and their sources of livelihood such as livestock and field crops. However, other less direct impacts like impairment of energy and transport infrastructure ultimately have devastating effects. For a country like Zimbabwe whose energy supply is heavily dependent on water and coal, the risks are high of power blackouts increasingly caused by rainfall variability emanating from climate change. Studies have shown that run-off from rainwater will reduce by up to 50%, a situation that would heavily impact on hydro power schemes. Already Kariba power station has been operating at reduced capacity and this may worsen as the region experiences intense drier periods. On the coal powered stations, even though Zimbabwe has secure coal reserves, the power stations are not immune to a climate disaster episode. For example, in South Africa heavy rains that fell in the week of 6th March 2014 soaked the coal supplies that ESKOM uses for power production. The result was a nationwide blackout. This is expected to occur frequently unless mitigation measures are taken to reduce the countries reliance on coal fired power stations. Climate change is expected to bring more heavy rain to Harare for example and this in turn may cause the power stations located there to fail as was experienced in South Africa. Zimbabwe should be encouraged to diversify its energy and use more renewable energy. A project has been started in Bulawayo to generate methane gas and electricity from municipal solid waste. It has been recommended as part of Climate Change mitigation to carry out pilot projects to develop alternative ways of adaptation and mitigation. Europe, parts of Asia and Brazil have extensive renewable energy programmes that could be replicated in Africa through solar, waste to energy, biomass power, geothermal and other energy sources that would reduce vulnerability to climate change. Kenya has achieved a significant shift to geothermal power through support from the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) that shows that this is applicable to other countries in Rift Valley system. Bad governance: drinking wine and preaching water in disaster risk management After widespread complaints on the levels of support from the government, several ministers visited Tsholotsho to show their concern for the flood victims. It is possible that some of the ministers were genuinely concerned at the fate of affected people and would have liked to see more timely and efficient disaster response. In the event what transpired is that a powerful delegation with no solution to floods and other disasters landed on the remote area with no lasting solutions. This will not be the last such case as long as there is no entrenchment of a rights approach that puts the interests of communities above monolithic power with little to restrain virtually imperial authority. This flies in the face of decisions like Resolution 10/4 of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) (2009) which recognizes that climate change jeopardizes the full spectrum of human rights, notably the right to life, adequate food, adequate housing and the right to the highest standard of health. The adoption of a human rights approach to climate change would bolster Zimbabwe’s commitment towards the fulfillment of international human rights conventions and treaties, including the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights. A political pound of flesh This presentation would not be complete without drawing attention to the fact that the organizers had directed the invitation to Dr. Dumiso Dabengwa, the President of the Zimbabwe African People’s Union (ZAPU). The assumption is that Dr. Dabengwa would have been expected to bring a political angle and bite to the discussion and an alternative voice to the ruling order. Going by key policy pronouncements one would have expected him to argue: • There is need for more consensus building to resolve the current economic crisis and hardship confronting Zimbabweans, and not wait for the next elections in 2018 while the ruling party single-handedly gropes for answers. • Clear policies are important and necessary for sectors and overall linkages that promote synergies and mutual reinforcement. However, policies are not the answer in themselves if the drivers signal left and turn right in front of oncoming traffic in our right-hand drive situation, so to speak. There must be restoration of predictability and universal respect for the rule of law, including observance of bye-laws and guidelines. Only this way can the rights and obligations of all citizens have equal meaning, regardless of political affiliation, tribe, language, colour or creed. • In the context of the theme under discussion, policies and strategies for mitigating climate change and for building adaptation to its imminent train of disasters and emergencies would benefit from deepening devolution of power already grudgingly provided for in the current Constitution. Center-periphery contradictions have rocked more established states and yet they can be managed by more sensitivity to the need for allowing different regions to manage their environments and use local resources in ways conducive to their well-being in a united country. Common practice is for the development of national and international strategies without allowing the development of regionally-specific strategies that would make a national strategy universally relevant to problem-solving. References and sources Action Aid International. 2005. 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