#cbcmar Today and tonight we have some showers moving across the Maritimes and Halloween on Friday will be dry and seasonally cool. I want to look past the next couple of days though, and forward to the weekend to what is looking like both a more complicated and potentially hazardous weather situation. Beginning late Friday a broad area of low pressure off the eastern seaboard of the United States will begin to become more organized. By Saturday morning the low will have deepened, picked up strength, and begins to move northward toward us in the Maritimes. As the low continues to track towards us it will bring in bands of rain on Saturday (mostly for Nova Scotia) as well as some increasingly gusty northeast winds. Not only does it look likely that those winds will become strong (some gusts of 60-80 km/h), but they will also assist in driving down some cold air out of northern parts of Quebec & Labrador. This cold stream of air is likely to be cold enough that for some parts of the Maritimes, as moisture from the low wraps into it, will see a mix of rain and snow...or even just a heavy, wet, accumulating snow. So which part of the Maritimes will see this? That part gets tricky, and it gets tricky because of the variation in forecast paths that this system could take past the Maritimes at the current time. The eastern most tracks would centre the core of the colder air and moisture around southeastern New Brunswick, hence giving that part of the Maritimes the best chance of accumulating snow. This track would also give western parts of PEI and areas of the South Shore, Annapolis Valley, and parts of Cumberland/Colchester Co in Nova Scotia a shot at a rain/snow mix. Now should the low take a more western track, heading towards the South Shore of Nova Scotia. The bullseye of cold air from the north and moisture from the system would shift towards northwestern parts of New Brunswick giving that area the best chance of accumulating snow with the rain/snow line shifting into central New Brunswick. With this solution PEI and Nova Scotia would just be kept in the rain. There is long range forecast guidance supporting both situations today, but my preference is for something a little closer to the western most track I explained above. That would put the best chance of accumulating snow in northern and central areas of New Brunswick with a sloppy mix of rain/snow possible south of Fredericton that would unlikely accumulate to much. Nova Scotia and PEI would mostly see rain (heavy at times) and strong winds. I know the next question is how much snow? Given the uncertainty in the track of the low, thats an almost impossible detail to tackle today. I will say though that some guidance is chiming in with amounts of 10+ even 20+ cm, heavily dependent on how much rain mixes in and how wet the snow is. A Special Weather Statement has been issued by Environment Canada regarding this weekends weather and the potential for significant snow in New Brunswick. Bottom lining it, I would plan for some possibly ugly road conditions in that province on Sunday. People in Nova Scotia and PEI should also take care in this weekends weather as rain can lead to hydroplaning conditions on the roads. Also keep in mind that were more than a few days out from this yet (nearly 4 full days). I fully expect some significant changes in the forecast moving towards Friday. Cheers, Kalin
Posted on: Wed, 29 Oct 2014 17:02:59 +0000
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