from Chuck Todd and the MSNBC political team... Why tonight matters: For all political reporters -- including us -- there’s always the danger of overstating the results from off-year or special elections, as well as their impact on future races. Turnout is smaller; you’re talking about just a sliver of Americans who are voting; and so much can change from now until 2014 and 2016. But the races tonight in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and even Alabama DO matter. The gubernatorial race in Virginia between Terry McAuliffe (D) and Ken Cuccinelli matters because no state has better reflected the center of American politics or the nation’s changing demographics than the Old Dominion over the past decade. In the last two presidential contests, the states popular vote (Obama 53%-46% in 08; Obama 51%-47% in 12) exactly matched the national popular vote. What’s more, the Virginia gubernatorial race has often been a precursor for future campaigns (Barack Obama’s ’08 candidacy looked a lot like Tim Kaine’s from ’05; the GOP’s midterm campaigns borrowed heavily from Bob McDonnell’s victory in ’09). And then there’s this: Democrats possibly having control over both U.S. Senate seats (Mark Warner and Tim Kaine), the governor’s mansion (McAuliffe), lieutenant governor (Ralph Northam), and attorney general (Mark Herring) would be quite the feat in this key swing state. And probably says as much about the state of the GOP in this key swing state as it does about the Democrats. Watching the races in VA, NJ, NYC, and AL: Chris Christie’s expected cakewalk to re-election in New Jersey matters because of 2016. A la George W. Bush’s 1998 re-election victory in Texas, Christie is trying to run up the score and show impressive exit-poll results among Democrats, independents, and minority voters -- all in an effort to brandish his electability credentials for a potential presidential bid. To hammer home the point, Christie toured the state yesterday with New Mexico’s Hispanic Republican governor, Susana Martinez… which of course elicited plenty of “is this a future ticket” jokes. New York’s mayoral election matters because Bill de Blasio (D) is the overwhelming favorite to become the first Democrat to win the office since 1989 (you read that right), and Joe Lhota (R) is finding out it isn’t easy being a Northeast Republican running for office (unless your name is Chris Christie). And the GOP congressional run-off in Alabama between Bradley Byrne and Dean Young matters because we’ll find out which side is winning the GOP’s ideological war in red states -- the establishment (Byrne) or the Tea Party (Young). Polls close in Virginia and 7:00 pm ET, in New Jersey and Alabama at 8:00 pm ET, and in New York City at 9:00 pm ET. Watching the Tea Party vs. the establishment: But the biggest story of all, as we wrote last week, will likely be the contrast between Virginia (where Cuccinelli’s conservatism is on display) and New Jersey (where Christie’s electability is the dominant message). READ MORE from Chuck Todd and the MSNBC political team...
Posted on: Tue, 05 Nov 2013 17:34:22 +0000
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