my election wrap in HBT today (not linked sry): Greens checked and Labour mated Two things stand out from this election result: first, that selling the big lie is getting easier the more citizens are dumbed down, and second that the Labour movement is dead unless it completely redirects its focus. Oh, and third, that strong passionate individuals willing to engage their electorate in ways that may spite the “party line” have a place in an MMP Parliament. Taking that last first, witness Stuart Nash for Napier: he refused to be diverted from standing up for what he saw as vital for his electorate. Napier people have rightly rewarded him for that. And while it’s fair to say opponent Wayne Walford proved such a muddle-headed lightweight it was barely a contest, regardless of Garth McVicar’s spoilage, Nash’s win was still an upset given half the electorate gave National their party vote. In itself, a prime example of what is good about the MMP system: you can elect your favourites on both sides. Well done Napier for empowering that. The major issue remained the economy, stupid. National won because they’re perceived to have successfully guided the ship of state through treacherous financial waters and come out relatively unscathed – and people naturally want such captaincy to continue. That the “rock star economy” is a big lie hasn’t stopped voters swallowing it. Point out debt is six times what it was under Clarke’s government or that 4000 jobs have disappeared from Hawke’s Bay alone since 2009 and those fortunate to be “doing okay” will look at you sideways. Surely we can’t still be in recession, they’re thinking, not bothering to look beneath the surface of circumstance. Which makes the lie so much easier to sell. Certainly Craig Foss, as a reigning Minister, benefitted hugely from that perceived success in Tukituki. Anna Lorck ran a tireless campaign, but after she was tarred half-blue most voters decided to choose the real thing over National-lite. Nor is there much concern that what recovery there is is coming at the cost of what we Kiwis supposedly hold most dear: our still half-pristine environment. Note “environment” was not an option in National’s own “biggest issue” polling. That some are worried is partly why the Green vote held while the rest of the left wilted. And because against a background of Nixon-era type scandals and dirty tricks, the Greens stayed on message and ethically clean; voters of all descriptions backed them for that. Locally however the decision to ignore former HBRC member Liz Remmerswaal’s credentials may have undermined the pro-Green support base she’d built up; election night totals dropped around 25% (of the Green vote) for Napier, Tukituki, and Wairarapa. Moreover New Zealand First’s puzzling if now-orthodox last-minute surge which gained the region another list MP in Ron Mark is a dubious distinction given Mark’s rabid anti-Green stance. Labour’s one major gain was taking six of the seven Maori seats, including Mekia Whaitiri comfortably holding Ikaroa-Rawhiti, while shutting out Internet-Mana in the process. But the irony of dumping arguably the country’s most forthright left-wing politician, Hone Harawira, should not be lost on the red machine when they dissect their non-performance. Overall, Labour’s recalcitrant belief that they are at least the natural Opposition and can fight their battles alone must change if they are to survive, let alone recover from, this mauling. Because right now, as Paul Henry gleefully remarked on the night, John Key is looking like winning the next election too. So just as Kim Dotcom, with remarkable candour, apologised to Harawira for “poisoning” his seat, Labour must also apologise. First for dissing the Maori Party in the run-up to voting; they may be part of National’s support apparatus, but that very cold shoulder will rankle with Labour’s own now-significant Maori caucus. More importantly, to have any future in government they must apologise to the Greens for spurning the chance of a joint campaign. That decision ensured they would lose. The electorate was primed for a straight fight between Labour/Greens and National; for Labour to get on their no-longer-high horse and reject that strategy both confused the public and confirmed them as out of touch with the ideological clash of this century, leaving the Nats to sweep the floor. What is a temporary check for the Greens is a disaster for Labour. Unless they wholeheartedly convert to ecologism by recognising the best solution for the woes of workers in the face of rampant neoliberalism is to adopt smart clean green thinking, Labour may never again lead the charge to the Treasury benches.
Posted on: Sun, 21 Sep 2014 23:57:25 +0000
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