oxygen: July 6, 2013 at 3:59 pm (Quote) # Citizen of WP Nation: July 6, 2013 at 1:24 am There is a strong relevance of ‘watch out China” as a twin impact coincident to and in combination with the quantitative easing intended by the Fed. That substance of NEXUS between them and the risks of evolving events turning out to be Ben Bernanke’s Minsky moment should be obvious from my writing in this Part I. Regardless, I think Abenomics is most likely, FAR TOO EARLY of possible gaining from money printing to boost Japanese domestic consumption and a cheaper Yen to lift export earning as a means of turning around the Japanese economy. Let me offer you my reasons why. I shall walk you back to this forecast I made in December 2011 published in TRE – “2012 – Dawn of spring recovery or the autumn sunset ahead of winter of deep recession?” Quote “What are the possible hints of an ECONOMIC turnaround from the next recession I will be looking for? Instead of US employment figure which is a lagged indicator of any actual recovery, this author prefers to look from a different perspective. Specifically, I would be watching for these developments before I can feel comfortable that global economies either hit bottom or near bottom, even though actual recovery might still lag in time. - A steep decline in the commodity-sensitive Australian and Canadian currencies followed by a sector-wide rebound in base metal prices - A rebound in global banking stocks generally, supported by top-line revenue increases, around the world i.e. the restoration of some stability of the banking liquidity systems and life-blood needed to sustain global economic recovery - Signs of increased corporate spending in capital goods and enhanced level of corporate takeover activities globally – both seems to be in the desert of doldrums at the moment. - A strong rebound of the US Nasdaq technology sector. - A rebound in gold prices - Strong growth in Chinese import trade figures. - Or different mixes of some of the above.” Unquote tremeritus/2011/12/30/2012-dawn-of-spring-recovery-or-the-autumn-sunset-ahead-of-winter-of-deep-recession/ Let us explore this further of each and every item above objectively IN THE SAME SEQUENCE. The actuality is of now - CORRECT of Australian dollar and Canadian currency decline and falling metal prices. Here is the weblink xe/currencycharts/?from=CAD&to=USD&view=1Y xe/currencycharts/?from=AUD&to=USD&view=1Y base metal prices in the dump. - banking stocks revenue/earning bad and Basel III not achieved - corporate spending/ M & A in doldrum - nasdaq rebound – yes - gold in the sh*thole - Chinese import figure – in the doldrum THE CONCLUSION – we are only in the beginning of another recession or NOT YET on the rising upleg on recovery. Abenomics = premature ejaculation.
Posted on: Sun, 07 Jul 2013 04:09:19 +0000