>>> todays deep dive. weve seen house republicans reach new lows in public opinion polls since the shutdown began and ended. the same polls show democrats moving up. but is it enough to give them an actual shot at flipping control of the house a year from now. lets take a look at some numbers here. this is from our nbc news wall street journal poll. in july, people were fairly split on which party should control congress. after 2014. as the shutdown threat loomed, it began shifting to the democrats favor by three points. and in the midst of the shourngs we saw an even bigger shift. democrats pulled ahead on the generic ballot by eight points. the reason thats important, historical trends show, democrats win big when they have a double-digit lead on the question of who controls congress. so theyre not quite there yet. but theyre getting closer. which then tells us, its potentially getting more competitive out there. democrats tell us theyre capitalizing on the swing and raising money, even landing some recruits. but can they keep the momentum for the midterms in a year? heres that whole health care thing here. let me go through some of the math for everybody. when it comes to this. right now, weve got 231 republicans. 200 democrats for vacant seats here. let me do a little math for you. among these four, we know two are going to the republicans. and we know one is going to the democrats. these are some empty seats, special seats there. so that means 201 down here. well see how my knuckle writing is doing today. 233 over here. i say thats pretty readable telestrating. take that, john madden. that gives us one empty seat here thats a true swing district, replacing bill young. ill tell you more on that. overall, it means democrats need 17. if they somehow won this one vacant seat, it would make their magic number 16 in november. let me go through some other numbers here for you. weve got the different districts -- the way to look at this and the breakdown, these are republican districts, where republicans control them, but president obama actually won the district in 2012. there are 17 of them. and they need 17. so the numbers technically work remember the . you see, its actually only in a handful of states they need to target to do this. let me take it down a step further. these are republican-held districts. the number of districts where president obama won at least 48%. he didnt win these. romney narrowly won them. but, again, you see the states are generally in either blue or purple areas. thats another 19 seats total, by the way. this is how their playing field needs to expand. whats interesting here, when you look at that, how tightly targeted by states some of these house seats are in. so they could literally spend their money and just about five to ten states, and big ones here, multiple districts in california, target multiple in new york, florida, pennsylvania, and yes, arkansas, two open seats there, two represented by democrats not too long ago. so thats their good news. now im going to take you to our canary in the coal mine. and thats that one vacant seat i told you at the beginning. florida, 13. its a swing district. i can tell you this. look at this. obama, 50.1%. romney 48.7%. doesnt get more swing than this. obama care in 08, guess what, bush won florida in 04, won this district. you can basically say how florida13 goes in presidentials so goes the state of florida. so that special is going to be our oh big canary in the coal mine. look at the things where democrats and their house results over previous years. a few things i want to throw up here. this is what they netted after the last shutdown, thanks to special elections and different things. they won about nine seats overall in 96 after the fact. so they netted seats after the shutdown, but it wasnt enough at that time to gain control. it was really nine, but, again, you play around the numbers, and you could say its a net three. obviously, we know what happened for them in 06 and 08. 52-seat gain over those two cycles. all of it, plus some, given back. you mr., of course, they got their -- they got eight in 2012. thats what youre looking at there. that sets up where things stand right now. whats interesting here is representative young was floridas longest tenured republican in congress. and he just died and the funeral is going to be today. but it looks like republicans will keep harping on health care reform and hope that that sort of stops their bleeding. and democrats are going to have to deal with those attacks and make hay out of the poll numbers. take a listen to john boehner and what he said when it comes to the house. >> as long as we stay focused on the priorities of the american people, i think were going to be fine. what are they concerned about? theyre concerned about their jobs. theyre concerned about their income. theyre concerned about their own health insurance and how theyre going to be able to afford it, and how theyre going to navigate through this bizarre plan that they now have to deal with. and so our job is to stay focused on the issues of the american people, most concern canned about, and if we do that, well be fine. >> boehner is hoping its health care that stops the bleeding on shutdown. lets bring in dccc chair steve israel, the man in charge of trying to get democrats to actually control the house and get a bunch of reporters to believe him when he says he thinks the house is in play. so congressman israel, let me start with an issue you had six months ago and ask you to update it now. six months ago you and others were talking about, you were having some difficulties convincing democrats to run in 2014, because too many good recruits said to you, you know what, i would love to run for congress someday, but i want to run in a presidential year. what are they saying now? >> well, you know, chuck, thanks for having me on. you have that in every single cycle. you have people who look at a potential candidacy and say i think ill wait. and two things have happened. number one, those recruits have realized that waiting is a good strategy for not getting elected to congress. and secondly, theyre seeing more of a path as a result of the harm that house republicans are willing to inflict on the economy. so there has been a fundamental not shift in terrain, but an implosion of the ground under house republicans throughout the country, and that is opening up doors to us that had been closed. and we now have problem-solvers who are sick and tired of the antics of republicans in washington who are, again, willing to hurt the economy in order to advance an obsessed political agenda. and theyre stepping up to the plate to run. >> well, youve -- i was pointing out your playing field has to be somewhere 35 to 50 seats, because you probably have to win 20 to actually take control. while you need 17 as a net, you probably have to win 25 to 30 house seats, because you have your own vulnerable seats. i want to put up a graphic here. there is at least seven democratic incumbents that hold districts that mitt romney carried. and all of these seem to have one concern of late this week. we heard from barrow down in georgia talking about what he would like to see in the health care law. health care is a challenge for your candidates, is it not? >> in every poll that i have seen, when given the choice between a democratic candidate who wants to fix, enhance and improve the affordable care act, and republican candidate who is obsessed with defunding and repealing the affordable care act, to the extent theyre willing to shutdown the federal government to achieve that aim, the democratic candidate is preferred by voters. particularly independent voters. what were seeing in all these generics that you just posted, chuck, is that those generic preferences for house democrats are largely fueled by independent voters who are shifting back to democrats, and why are they shifting back? because they would rather have people who are going to work every single day to improve the affordable care act and fix it, rather than people who are willing to shutdown the federal government and default on our economy in order to repeal and defund that law. >> so this is going to be the campaign. in this respect. youre basically saying, youre going to embrace the health care attacks, fine. if republicans want to make -- in 2010, democrats ran away from health care. when republicans attacked democrats on health care, democrats wanted to talk about something else. what youre saying this time is, you believe you can win a messaging war on health care if you frame it the way you framed it. >> im not sure that health care is going to be the dominant issue of the campaign. ill tell you -- the republicans are going to try and do that. you know, theyre spending a lot of money today, beaming into districts, rooting for failure. again, repeating their obsession with defunding and repealing the affordable care act. theyll try and do that. heres what were going to put on the ballot in 2014. do you want solutions? do you want reasonable people with common sense ideas to address the nations problems who are going to fight for what they believe, but are focused on -- keep their eye open to the middle ground? or do you want a continuation of the cliffs and the chaos and people who are actually hurting the economy and costing jobs as a result of their partisan obsessions? thats what this campaign is going to be about. and i think that we -- voters would prefer our message to the republican obsession. >> the polarized nationalizing and climate, youre trying to win over independent voters. president obama standing with independent voters has not been great in our polling. his job rating holding up more so in comparison to republicans, and more so, thanks to a unified base again. sort of coming back to the president. is -- is -- is this a way that you selectively want president obama involved in the campaign in 2014, or do you think he will be an asset in many of these places? >> oh, i think he is -- he will be an asset in many places, particularly against the house republicans who are just toxic right now in every single poll. look, in 2006, we won the majority, because independent voters preferred our approach to the house republican approach. in 2013, all of those generic polls that you just referred to are showing a fundamental shift of independent voters back to house democrats. why is that? because inspect voters are by their very nature nonpartisan and when they see house republicans who are willing to hurt the economy, cost 1.5 million jobs, laid off federal workers, furloughed people, in order to advance a partisan obsession, they have buyers remorse. and that is why youre seeing that shift back to house democrats who will be about solutions and reasonableness versus the kind of theatrics and harm youve seen from house republicans. >> let me ask a few things on health care. do you want the enrollment period extended beyond march 31st if the healthcare.gov isnt running smoothly by december 1st, say? >> look, i think we have to continue to make common sense accommodations and improvements, based on facts on the frounld. and so whatever we need to do in order to make sure this works, we ought to consider. as opposed to house republicans who have now announced theyre going to have a series of hearings and across a whole bunch of committees. i want oversight to make something work. but not obsession to ensure that something fails. >> you dont think this hearing today on the contractors is a legitimate hearing? seems legitimate. >> oh, absolutely. and i welcome it. because we need answers and we need accountability. but what they have said, theyre going to start a series of hearings across multiple committees, which is part of their obsession. thats not oversight. thats obsession. >> common sense accommodation. that phrase sounds like youre open to some deadline extensions. >> i would be, if its based, again -- if its based on common sense and in the interest of making something work as opposed to an obsession with ensuring that something fails. >> steve israel, chairman of the dccc. also, we should remind people, a member of congress from long island, although were not hearing your long island accent very well today. thank you, sir.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 03:10:47 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015