#tristatewx May 10, 2014: Evening update for southern Illinois and western Kentucky... Changes and comments since the last update... **Anyone camping tonight over northern parts of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois should monitor radars and your cell phone APPs** 1. Everything seemed to work out today on the scattered nature of the late morning and afternoon thunderstorms. The forecast was for a few popup cells to form. And they did. Unfortunately some of you did have to deal with heavy downpours/lightning/gusty winds (Owensboro BBQ festival was one of those locations). But, for most of the area, it remained dry. 2. No real changes in the forecast thoughts for tonight. A complex of thunderstorms (some likely severe) will track southeast through central and northern Missouri and eventually turn eastward into Illinois. The question on the table is just how far south and east will this complex of thunderstorms end up. I am sticking with the idea of it mainly being the northern part of our area - say from Farmington, Missouri to Perryville, Missouri to Perry County, Illinois towards Jefferson County, Illinois. Areas just south of that line should monitor radars - it will be a tough forecast call as to whether the storms can make it south of that line. Again, if you are camping then monitor radars. I am concerned about the amount of lightning with the cells tonight - along with gusty winds and very heavy downpours. A severe thunderstorm watch may have to be issued for portions of eastern Missouri and perhaps parts of southern Illinois later tonight. Tornado risk tonight is very very small for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Would not be surprised to see a tornado warning or two west of St Louis late this evening - QLCS tornadoes (those are the ones usually embedded within a line of thunderstorms). Keep in mind that a few popup thunderstorms are already occurring over areas south of that line - these popup cells are not what I am talking about above. What I am talking about will be a new areas of thunderstorms that will approach from the northwest. The complex of storms may make it as far east as Evansville and that means areas along the Ohio River near Indiana, as well. There remain questions on this subject. Again, monitor your radar APPs or other sources for weather data. 3. Sunday - a few popup heavy thunderstorms possible. Widely scattered, at best. Thinking is a 10% chance or so at any given spot. Most areas will remain dry. Same for Sunday night. 4. Our next cold front arrives on Monday and Tuesday. Locally heavy thunderstorms will be possible with the front. Believe the severe weather risk will be low along the cold front in southern Illinois and western Kentucky. I do believe there will be a chance for flash flooding in some of our counties as the cold front stalls out over our area. This will need to be monitored. Typically trying to figure out the exact placement of where thunderstorms might train (training means moving over the same counties repeatedly) is best left for the short range forecast (say 6 to 12 hours in advance). Monitor updates. 5. WELL below normal temperatures arrive towards the middle of the week. Near record lows again possible. Definitely wont feel like the middle of May. Same pattern we have been in since last October. Your forecast details... Tonight - A few scattered evening thunderstorms. Otherwise, a complex of thunderstorms will push out of Missouri later tonight and move into parts of southern Illinois. A few of the storms will produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps hail. See the discussion above for more details on the placement of the thunderstorms. Overnight lows will be in the 60s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Gusty near storms. Sunday - Partly sunny and warm. A popup thunderstorm possible. High temperatures will be around 80-85 degrees. Winds will be from the south/southwest at 10-15 mph. Sunday night - Partly cloudy. A stray evening thunderstorm possible. Mild. Overnight lows in the upper 60s. Monday - Mostly cloudy with an increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms. Warm. Highs will be in the middle 80s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Monday night and Tuesday - Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Low temperatures will be in the 60s and high temperatures will be in the 70s. South winds on Monday night at 10 mph and southwest/west winds on Tuesday at 10-20 mph. Tuesday night - Showers and thunderstorms possible. Overnight lows in the 60s. Northwest winds at 10 mph. Wednesday - A chance for showers. Cooler. Highs only in the 60s.
Posted on: Sat, 10 May 2014 22:19:34 +0000
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