#tristatewx #paducah May 9, 2014: Evening update - There will be an * next to the weekend forecast details. A couple of severe thunderstorms moved through southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, and southwest Indiana this afternoon - a few reports of hail and damaging winds were reported with these thunderstorms. Additional storms are possible over the coming hours. I still have concerns about whether or not Saturday morning will bring some showers/storm activity in far southern IL and western KY. Then additional chances on Saturday night into Sunday morning. Not overly confident on how it plays out. You will want to monitor radars if you have outdoor events this weekend. Changes since the last update... For southern Illinois and western Kentucky The overall severe weather threat for the rest of this evening and overnight hours will be fairly small at any given location. There will remain a chance for a few reports of severe weather - high winds and hail being the main concern. Tornado risk is low - not zero - but low. Monitor the latest watches/warnings from the NWS and local media. Of course, lightning and heavy downpours are always a concern with thunderstorms. Changes since the last update... 1. Not overly confident on the Saturday morning time frame (say 5 am through 11 am). Will include at least a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Remember the * in the weekend forecast? One concern will be Saturday night - uncertainty surrounds the placement of a complex of thunderstorms that will form over parts of southwest and central Missouri. There remain some questions as to where this area of thunderstorms will track. I am currently forecasting it to track through central Missouri and then into the St Louis area. However, not all the data supports this happening. Some data pushes it much further south. If there are going to be any major changes in the forecast then this would be the reason why. Bottom line on this subject - if you have outdoor plans on Saturday into Sunday night then check your radar app from time to time - check the updated forecast. If you are camping then monitor updates - take your weather radio along with you. If the thunderstorm complex were to push into our region then strong winds, very heavy downpours, and frequent lightning would accompany it. I know many of you have outdoor plans on Saturday - the above forecast is the best one I have. it is not a clear cut deal on precipitation chances. I wish it was :) Details of the forecast... Friday night - On/off showers and thunderstorms - a few heavy downpours possible (especially early in the night). Overnight lows in the 60s. South/southwest winds of 10-15 mph. Gusty near thunderstorms. Lightning is a concern for any outdoor events. Saturday - A few morning showers and thunderstorms (mainly before 5 am). The best chances of showers and storms may end up being over far far southern Illinois and western Kentucky vs northern parts of southern Illinois. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Rain chances around 30% to 40% during the morning (5 am through 10 am) and 30% late morning into the afternoon. Highs will be in the 70s to near 80. South/southwest winds at 10-15 mph. Saturday night and Sunday - Partly cloudy. A chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms moving in from the northwest. Lows in the 60s and highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Southerly winds at 10-15 mph. Sunday night - A few clouds. Mild. Overnight lows in the 60s. Monday - Partly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm possible (10%-20% chance). Warm. Highs in the lower 80s. Gusty southerly winds. Monday night - A chance for showers and thunderstorms, late. Mild. Lows in the 60s. Tuesday - A period or two of showers and thunderstorms. Highs near 80 degrees. Tuesday night - Showers and thunderstorms possible. Overnight lows in the 50s. Wednesday - Partly sunny and cooler. A chance for showers and thunderstorms continuing. Highs only in the 60s. Lows by Thursday morning will be back down into the 40s.
Posted on: Fri, 09 May 2014 23:28:35 +0000
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