williamlambton 3:23 am on June 7, 2013 Permalink | Log in to leave a Comment Quite a good article (Al-Qusayr): reuters/article/2013/06/06/us-syria-crisis-region-analysis-idUSBRE9550TJ20130606. But how ‘strategic’ is Qusayr? The main road to the coast from Damascus runs between Homs and the lake to the south-west of Homs. Qusayr is 10 miles west of that dual carriageway, on its approach, in a due-north direction, to Homs. Only less significant roads cross at Qusayr, which is about nine miles south of the lake (there is a motorway skirting it – but last year’s map shows it as incomplete). A direct route to Tartus, say, from Qusayr would pass through the narrow gap between the lake and Lebanon. But, in peacetime, a resident of Qusayr driving to the coast would almost certainly avoid the minor roads (or an unfinished motorway) and drive straight north-east to join the M5, south of Homs. Qusayr is strategic for rebels in Homs, of course, being on a route from that city to Lebanon. So, my own view is that Qusayr is a prelude to a battle for Homs entire, which would be of far greater significance. It is also a territory where Hezbollah may feel ‘at home’, being thus soft, in their eyes. The recent upsurge of Assad can be traced back to the Israeli air attack on the Damascus region early last month, almost immediately after which the Geneva II talks idea was mooted by Kerry in Moscow during his first visit there, as Secretary of State, on Tuesday, 7th May – the attacks occurred that Sunday. I am guessing, but I suspect America did NOT know about those attacks in advance and immediately told Israel to behave itself and not do anything so bad again, afterwards. This is why there has been no follow-up against Hezbollah. Instead we have Geneva II, a green light for Assad, and Hezbollah, to go flat out… which is what has happened. If those dreadful talks occur, they will merely confirm terms for the uprising’s defeat. Assad has a full month – at least – along with his allies to keep hammering his opponents in the firm belief that neither Israel, nor the West, will do anything to help the rebels, whatever he does. And if those S-300s arrive, if they haven’t already, he will then feel well protected, even if Israel breaks free and tries to strike again (Israel does not want Hezbollah on the loose in Syria – not one little bit). “This is a very difficult process, which we come to late,” said Kerry a couple of days ago, referring to Geneva II (he didn’t say “… to which we come too late,” though he may as well have!). This implies a feeble attempt by Obama to help the revolution in former times, which hasn’t worked, that attempt now giving way to an even more feeble conference. It also implies that Obama has never really thought for long about Syria, despite the agony he says he goes through every day: ‘”The sight of children and women being slaughtered that we’ve seen so much I think has to compel all of us to say, what more can we do?” Obama said. “And that’s a question that I’m asking as president every single day”‘ – Amman, a week before Good Friday. I think he thinks about America, not Syria, whatever he says. He sees that as his mandate, from the people. Qusayr may cause, if not him, then others to stir, however. Assad regaining control of his country, with the promise of elections next year, is not an attractive sight, as the punishment he will mete out will be severe, and, if people vote for him, it will be out of either sycophancy or terror. Like father, like son. This may not have much impact far away on the wrong side of the Atlantic, but will be felt very keenly in Israel, for fear of attack, and Europe, on moral grounds or on grounds of principle (to put it over-simply). And southern Arabs will not want a solidified Shia block to the north, either, as the article implies. We must hope that someone will stand up to Obama and do the right thing. The mechanisms are in place.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Jun 2013 05:21:20 +0000
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