Тімоті Еш із Стандард Банку вважає, що російський ЦБ вирішив по-тихому накласти на себе руки... Airbag deployed. Lets see if the driver surives this one. Remarkable move by the CBR - hiking rates by 650bps in a late night meeting reminiscent of the CBRT in Turkey in January/Feb, but much worse/bigger move. The question is why the CBR did not hike rates more than 100bps last week, or indeed last month when it moved to free float the rouble. And why has the CBR been unprepared to deploy its more than ample FX reserve stock (over USD400bn). This was a move reflecting just how far the CBR had got behind the curve. In a situation where a central bank allows its currency to depreciate by 10 per cent in a day, the message is that they have lost control, and their very credibility is at stake. The CBRs lack of action had left the stability of the very financial system at stake. I am not sure whether Nabuillina can survive this. She has now had the worst of all worlds, allowing the rouble to crash, having lost close to USD100bn in FX reserves and having hiked policy rates by more than 1000bps now this year. I am asking myself who has been running monetary and exchange rate policy in Russia in recent weeks, was it the CBR or the Kremlin, as why the CBr did not initially come in with big size intervention (USD10bn) last month when they moved to free float is beyond me. It would likely have worked then. Instead the CBR sat on its hands and did very little - and appeared like a rabbit in the headlights. As is we have this huge move now, which will impart a big price on the economy - deep recession is now likely. I thought the CBR did a decent job managing the currency weaker earlier in the year - until the free float last month. But since the free float, they get very low marks in crisis management. I have been really surprised how they let all this blow up in their faces.
Posted on: Tue, 16 Dec 2014 08:16:49 +0000
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