1) The political and media attention given to President Obamas forthcoming announcement on ISIL is itself a political victory for ISIL, boosting its stock as a threat to all-things-jihadists-hate. 2) It would be far better if the President left his counter-ISIL strategy unspoken. That he has to publicly enunciate one has nothing to do with degrading ISIL, and everything to do with domestic politics. 3) ISIl cannot be defeated through any likely application of US military power. It can certainly be hurt and contained though, especially in Iraq. 4) There is a significant risk that US airstrikes either harden Sunni attitudes or create a rebound effect that benefits ISIL (you bombed/were still here/nah-nah-na-na-na), so it needs to be done carefully. 5) This will take a long time UNLESS a number of other Sunni paramilitary and tribal groups flip on ISIL (and that is a political rather than military process). Perhaps years. 6) No, the US is not going to ally with Syria (which has killed far more people than ISIL), or directly coordinate with Iran in Iraq. Anything like that will be subtle, partial, and indirect. 7) The Turks likely still view the Syrian regime and the Kurds as larger threats than ISIL. Their cooperation is quite important in interdicting the supply of foreign fighters.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 21:27:44 +0000
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