2014 OSCAR ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS... by CNN Its that - TopicsExpress

2014 OSCAR ACADEMY AWARDS PREDICTIONS... by CNN Its that time again, time to pull out the ballots and read the tea leaves and see whos going to take home the trophies at Sundays 86th Academy Awards. Will it be 12 Years a Slave? Leonardo DiCaprio? Let It Go from Frozen? Oscar forecasting is a lighthearted parlor game for many and a who cares shrug for others. (Go ahead, commentators, let us know how you really feel!) But to studios, agents, managers and many of the nominees, winning the Oscar is not only first-line-of-the-obituary recognition, but it also means cold, hard cash, as Oscar winner Wendy Hiller once bluntly put it, in box-office receipts and future contracts. With that in mind -- and with the possibility of some of this articles readers taking home cold, hard cash for winning their Oscar pools -- here are a few key indicators to follow at the 2014 Oscars Sunday night. Of course, the Oscars being the Oscars, nothing is guaranteed. What are the best picture front-runners? There may be nine nominees for best picture, but only three have a good chance of winning, says Tom ONeil of the awards handicapping site GoldDerby: 12 Years a Slave, Gravity and American Hustle. 12 Years is the favorite among his 30 experts, with Gravity second at 10-3 odds and Hustle at 50-1. Everything else is 100-1. The site TheCredits.org agrees. Its social awards season app, DataViz, crunched the numbers based on mentions on Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and film-related sites. It determined that 12 Years has 42% of the online mentions (as of February 24) and Gravity is second with 33%. But, points out Clayton Davis of AwardsCircuit, in a year with divisive choices -- and 12 Years, though widely hailed, is not necessarily widely loved -- the preferential voting system for best picture can favor everybodys second choice. Thats Gravity, which also has the benefit of being the peoples choice as the highest-grossing film among the nominees. Film editing is your friend Of course, best picture is the last category of the night. What are some of the early signs that one of these films has an edge? The film editing category may seem minor to Oscar viewers, but it often has an outsized role in showcasing best picture winners. ONeil observes that the best picture has won the editing Oscar more than half the time -- and if you rule out action-oriented flicks such as Bullitt, Star Wars and The Bourne Ultimatum, its even more predictive. This years editing nominees include all three best picture front-runners along with Captain Phillips, directed by the handheld-camera-favoring, quick-cutting Paul Greengrass, and Dallas Buyers Club. Gravity is the favorite, says ONeil, and that could foretell a spacey night. But even more notable will be if 12 Years or Hustle grabs the trophy, since a win would be so unexpected. As for Phillips, that would simply acknowledge the expertise of Greengrass and editor Christopher Rouse -- who won for Ultimatum six years ago. Pressing the flesh Though overt Oscar campaigning is frowned upon, theres nothing wrong with showing up at industry functions, saying the right things, posing for pictures and shaking a few hands. That could make a difference in the best actor category, whose favorites are Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club) and Leonardo DiCaprio (The Wolf of Wall Street). Though both have some high-profile wins, they have yet to face off in the same category. (Both won Golden Globes, but McConaugheys was for a drama and DiCaprios was for comedy.) And when it comes to politicking, DiCaprio has played the game well, says ONeil, who points out that the Wolf star has been making the rounds with humor and class. When I look at the list of past winners of best actor, I see movie stars, he says. Theres kind of a veteran glow to it. With Leo being overdue, its to his advantage -- and hes given the biggest performance of his career in the most talked-about movie of the year. But McConaughey may have a secret weapon. No, not his extreme weight loss. Try True Detective on HBO, which has become an addictive hit. (One academy member) told me hes voting for McConaughey because hes addicted to True Detective, says ONeil. Technically speaking Gravity is up for several technical awards, including production design, sound editing, sound mixing and visual effects. Its considered the front-runner for most of them. If it falters, it could be a long night for director Alfonso Cuaron and his film. If you see Gravity lose some techs, its indicative that its not going all the way, says Davis. A Slave surprise 12 Years a Slave has fewer technical nominations but has a number of acting nods: best actor Chiwetel Ejiofor, best supporting actor Michael Fassbender and best supporting actress Lupita Nyongo. Only Nyongo is given a strong shot to win -- shes the top pick of GoldDerbys experts -- but if Fassbender and Ejiofor triumph, expect Slave to take it all. Fassbender has the toughest road, says ONeil. The academy has softened up about giving Oscars for villainous roles, but theres usually a wink involved -- think Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds or even Anthony Hopkins in The Silence of the Lambs. Not so for Fassbenders character, a vicious slave owner. Hes pure Satan, says ONeil. Do the Hustle American Hustle did even better among the major categories -- its the only film nominated in the Big Six of picture, director, actor, actress, supporting actor and supporting actress. But of all the films nominees, only Jennifer Lawrence -- whos won a Globe and a SAG Award, and whos the most popular actress in the world right now -- is considered a threat in her category, best supporting actress. The key is probably Amy Adams, up for best actress. That category is considered a runaway for Cate Blanchett of Blue Jasmine, but if the Woody Allen controversy has rubbed off on her, five-time nominee Adams could take the Oscar and indicate bigger things for the film about the 70s Abscam scandal. Davis is doubtful, though. Even the Seahawks gave up a touchdown during the Super Bowl, he says. Im sure shell lose a couple votes, but not enough to matter, he says. Watch Weinstein Producer Harvey Weinstein is the master of awards gamesmanship. He makes high-quality, often audience-friendly films with good casts -- Shakespeare in Love, The Artist, Quentin Tarantinos films -- and he knows how to promote them. This year hes putting his chips on his best picture nominee, Philomena. The film has earned good reviews, done respectable box office and features the ageless Judi Dench. It has a good shot at adapted screenplay, which was co-written by star Steve Coogan, and Dench is a seven-time nominee whos won once before. Along with Martin Scorseses The Wolf of Wall Street, its probably the leading dark horse -- but whereas Wolf is divisive, Philomena is liked. ONeil thinks screenplay is possible -- sometimes the most emotional movie wins -- but thinks that might be it. Still, at least Philomena picked up a best picture nomination. Weinsteins other major film, August: Osage County, didnt even get that. Splitting tickets Finally, this is an odd handicapping year. Usually the best director has directed the best picture, but this year the handicappers are picking Gravitys Cuaron for best director and 12 Years a Slave for best picture. When the two categories differ, its a surprise, not an expectation. Davis cant shake the feeling that voters wont split their votes -- and that will make Gravity the big winner. (Sorry, 12 Years director Steve McQueen.) Cuaron not only won the top award from the Directors Guild, but Gravity also tied 12 Years as the best film picked by the Producers Guild -- which, given the PGAs use of the preferential ballot, was an incredible shocker. And ONeil suggests another indicator: Gravity star Sandra Bullock, whos up for best actress. If Gravity wins best picture, Sandra might go along for the rocket ride, he says. She is Gravity -- shes the whole movie. One sure thing? This wont predict the best picture winner, but if youre looking to check off a category on your Oscar ballot, look no further than The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life, a documentary short subject about a Holocaust survivor who lived to be 110. As Mark Harris noted in Grantland, she died Sunday -- two days before Oscar voting ended. Harris sums it up: Were done here. Dominoes and randomness A lot of the foregoing, of course, assumes the Oscars are logical. Let us emphasize: The Oscars are not logical. They are a popularity contest, a business proposition, a plea for attention, a throw of a dart. Sometimes films gather momentum like so many falling dominoes, as Argo did last year. Other times big favorites fall short at the end: 1976s Network won three of four acting categories but lost best picture to Rocky; 1972s Cabaret took home eight Oscars -- including best director -- but lost best picture to The Godfather. And if you need any more proof that the Oscar universe can be as random as a roll of the dice, consider two words: Roberto Benigni. Good luck in your pool.