462 FXUS63 KSGF 301722 AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2014 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night) Issued at 328 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014 Active weather day on tap as strong southwest winds quickly develop across the area this morning. There will be a period from the mid morning hours into early this afternoon where sustained winds peak between 25 and 35 mph with gusts to around 45 mph. The best potential for these winds will be for areas (roughly) along and west of the Highway 65 corridor and a wind advisory will be issued for these areas. To the east, 20 to 30 mph winds with gusts to 40 will be possible. As has been advertised, there will be high fire danger today due to the strong winds, low relative humidity values and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning will be issued shortly. Please refer to the Fire Weather section below for more information. Forecast high temperatures will be a bit tricky today. Strong warm advection on the heels of southwest winds will be counteracted a bit by increasing high level cloud cover. Have stayed close to the previous forecast with highs generally in the 45 to 50 degree range. Guidance is a bit cooler, likely due to the potential affects of high clouds limiting insolation a bit. A cold front will slowly sag into the region tonight and be a focus for light precipitation Friday through Saturday. 00z suite of model guidance is in general agreement, however when considering precipitation types, the devil is in the details. Further complicating matters will be questionable cloud ice content Friday and a low level warm nose that will move into the region Friday night and Saturday. The bottom line for this forecast is that any precipitation late tonight and Friday will be light and generally in the form of drizzle along and southeast of the plateau and a mix of light rain/snow north and west of the plateau (and especially along the Highway 54 corridor). Heading into Friday night and Saturday, a few subtle shortwaves will move across the Midwest. While cloud ice will be on the increase, a warm nose will move northward into the area. Just how far north is still in question. With the stalled cold front bisecting the area from southwest to northeast, at or below freezing temperatures will be most plausible from Joplin to Vichy and points northwest. This is the area that will be most prone to a mix of light freezing rain and snow. QPF does not look all that impressive with the better focus for snow just northwest of the forecast area. Nevertheless, around one tenth of an inch of ice accumulation and a dusting to around one inch of snow will be possible. Elsewhere, temperatures look to be above freezing for the bulk of this system. As a result, drizzle and light rain is expected. Again, not looking at a great amount of QPF, but anything is welcome at this point given our antecedent dry conditions. This system will exit to the east by Saturday evening with clearing and colder temperatures moving into the area. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 328 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014 Models have backed off on the wave that was in earlier runs for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. The models suggest this wave will be further south during this time frame. Will only mention slight chances for some light snow showers mainly over the far southern Missouri Ozarks. Very little to no accumulation is expected with QPF being very light and further south with the latest guidance. The next potential winter storm system that we are watching closely and to affect the region will be moving in late Monday night through Tuesday night. There is quite a bit of uncertainty with amongst the model solutions with the ECMWF now being the more bullish and a stronger system. The GEM and the GFS have flip flopped and are less robust with latest runs. The main focus will be that is there something on the horizon for the Ozarks early next week mainly in the form of possible accumulating snow. It is way to early to speculate snow amounts with any certainty but a swath of several inches looks plausible in or near the area with the main system moving through on Tuesday. It does appear to be mainly a snow event with some sleet possibly mixing in over far southern Missouri but that all depends on eventual track and thermal profiles. An Arctic surface high pressure will build in behind the exiting storm system and with the potential for fresh snow cover on the ground...temperatures will be very cold with highs barely in the 20s and overnight lows in the single digits if not colder. Long range models suggest more active weather possible late next week as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1108 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014 Strong south to southwest winds with gusts to 35-40 kts being reported across the western portions of the region at this time. As the pressure gradient begins to relax later this afternoon...winds will gradually subside around 00z. Otherwise...VFR conditions can be expected into the overnight hours. As the front currently situated from western Iowa into northern Kansas makes its way southward overnight....expect ceilings to gradually lower to MVFR by around 12z. Precipitation will be scattered in nature and less than PROB30...so will not mention in the TAF at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER...(Thursday) Issued at 328 AM CST THU JAN 30 2014 Windy conditions will quickly develop across the area this morning. Sustained winds of 20 to 35 mph and gusts to 45 mph will be observed across much of the area, with the strongest winds generally along and west of the Highway 65 corridor. Relative humidity values have not recovered so far this morning with readings only in the 30 to 50 percent range. Quick warming and neutral moisture advection this morning will result in Red Flag conditions developing in areas along and east of the Highway 65 corridor by late morning. Minimum relative humidity values in this area this afternoon will be in the 20 to 25 percent range. A minor increase in moisture is expected this afternoon and mainly for areas west of the Highway 65 corridor. This will help keep afternoon minimum relative humidity values around percent. While this is just above strict Red Flag criteria, the behavior of recent fires and very dry 10 hour fuels coupled with the gusty southwest winds suggest a cautious approach. As a result, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the entire area from late this morning through this afternoon. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR MOZ055>058- 066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105. WIND ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR MOZ055-066>068- 077>080-088>090-093>095-101>103. KS...RED FLAG WARNING until 6 PM CST this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101. WIND ADVISORY until 3 PM CST this afternoon FOR KSZ073-097-101. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gagan LONG TERM...Griffin AVIATION...Gaede FIRE WEATHER...Gagan
Posted on: Thu, 30 Jan 2014 17:31:43 +0000
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