A country without money and without standby power to the President. A country where inflation, the distrust , the contraction of private investment, the flight to the dollar and the increasing loss of central bank reserves have continued to devastate the economy. A country increasingly riddled by insecurity and by a phenomenon such as drug trafficking, which is slowly ceasing to be a novelty. A country where for exactly one month, nobody knew who ruled and where the disgraced Vice President in exercise of executive power, Amado Boudou , was virtually kidnapped. A Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner awaits an Argentina where, for the first time, his power is threatened by a pack of leaders who until very little flattered. An Argentina in which children begin to rebel against their parents as political forces to increase while they are weakened. That country anxiously contemplates a scenario marked by a big question: what will be the health and emotional state of the first president to face new challenges, characteristic of the end of an era? Will the head of state the necessary flexibility to adapt to new political and socioeconomic circumstances? It seems simple. If there is a trait that has accompanied throughout his administration, that has been its rigidity. Like the scorpion in the fable, the stiffness is in their nature. Like the protagonists of the old cowboy movies, Cristina Kirchner has wood of those heroes who follow his way of being to the end. And now it must, before the stormy horizon, if you have the gift of the best drivers, which are those capable of dodging storms rather than go to them with a firm hand. Any process of succession in Peronism has been traumatic for Argentina and Hard society is to come will be the exception. The cristinismo houses the illusion of finding a candidate who, besides having the DNA K, accept Cristina central role behind the person occupying the presidential chair. In other words, a formula equivalent to that of Campora government, Peron to power. But until the current President believes that this is nothing more than a chimera. Know all too well that dolphin is a potential traitor. And he hinted in his recent interview with Jorge Rial, when he revealed that he does not trust hardly anyone, except for their children. The great fear of Cristina and his inner circle of the forthcoming presidential renewal, is that his successor, even if your chosen, will do the same that Kirchner did to Eduardo Duhalde. Hence, the hypothesis gains ground that if the cristinismo had to choose between Daniel Scioli and Sergio Massa, probably end staying with Mauricio Macri. This speculation, which is associated with the idea of an inexorable loss of Kirchner leads to another hypothesis: that the current government will not be tempted to try profound changes in economic policy, but would look to get patched until 2015 and foist the bill unpaid to the next administration. Of course this power strategy, consisting of loose to return when the bomb will explode to his successor, who would replicate that of Carlos Menem in 1999, would conflict with the interests and expectations of a wide sector of the Justicialist Party, represented by governors and leaders territorial. The emotional state of the President and seconder will henceforth be a key factor in determining government policy. One will be the management if the mood of the ruling group realizes that the battle for 2015 is virtually lost and will probably be another if kept any hope of retaining power. Against the latter hypothesis, according to which the Baldwin expectations remain somehow continue in power since December 2015, is discounted and economic changes in the cabinet would soon occur, even if no one can expect a twist 180 degrees. The exchange splitting idea is gaining ground, from Axel Kicillof to Guillermo Moreno-, but no one dares to predict whether it will include the possibility that the public may repurchase hoarding dollars. The Supreme Court ruling in favor of the media law helped to dilute the effects of the electoral defeat of October 27. It showed, especially into the Peronism, which the government retains cristinista ability to exercise power and to discipline their enemies. But it also gave rise to the judgment to be used by the government to legitimize their abuses against the press that it is not docile. Striking and dangerously, in recent days, the debate on this bill and owners of media companies suddenly became a debate on journalists critical of the government. They did not spend 24 hours of complaints Guiñazú Magdalena Ruiz had carried along with six other journalists before the Human Rights Commission of the OAS about restrictions on press freedom in Argentina, where AFIP inspectors were suspiciously present in his home. No less rude surprise caused the public statements of Cabinet Chief Juan Manuel Abal Medina, who accused the journalist recognized believe it should be outside the law and that the State has to accept their claims without even paying less tax submit a paper to justify it. The legitimacy of a process initiated by the reporter for the reduction of the advance payment of income tax is out of any discussion. Neither the attack and theft suffered another journalist complainant to the OAS, Alfredo Leuco, seemed casual. Both episodes found, suggestively, the echo of a ruling militancy seemed celebrate rented through various social networks, the misfortune of both professional journalists. A symbol of the politics of fear that since government sectors seeking to impose to restrict any opinion makers seeking to highlight the contradictions of the official story. While that happened, Guillermo Moreno and the Secretary of Defense of the Consumer, Pimpi Colombo, claimed that in Argentina there is no inflation, while the Secretary of Environment and Sustainable Development, Juan José Mussi, asserted that half the Riachuelo problems are solved , while the New York Blacksmith Institute and Green Cross Switzerland published a report that placed him as the eighth most polluted place in the world. In economic news, the official desperation get dollars in any way was evidenced with the Central Banks decision to forbid exporting grain companies access to local credit weights to force them to external borrowing since settled those dollars for the window of the Central Bank Argentina. Although nobody knows for sure who rules these days and the unknowns on economic future are not minor, at least the continuation of a policy founded on the denial of problems, the growing state intervention and the creation of a climate of persecution government dissidents seems guaranteed. .
Posted on: Sun, 10 Nov 2013 13:07:46 +0000
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