A dangerous situation has been panning out on the Israel-Palestine front. Emotions are high and in the complex situation there is no chance of a clear victory for either side. This is a politico-military game in which people on both sides suffer tremendously. See below for a commentary from someone who posted it to me. This post is more from information angle than expression of any opinion:- CEASE FIRE PROPOSED BY EGYPT 1. Egypt Proposes Cease Fire. A short-term cease-fire proposed by Egypt, accepted by Israel on July 15 and so far rejected by Gaza’s main Palestinian factions is already on shaky grnd. Egypts proposed cease-fire calls upon Israeli and Palestinian delegations to arrive in Cairo within 48 h to discuss terms for a more lasting truce. The proposal issues a vague call for bdr xg into Gaza to be reopened once the security sit is stabilized. Hamas is looking for firmer guarantees on the release of prisoners and the lifting of the Gaza blockade, while Israel is trying to mov the cease-fire talks toward a negotiated plan that forces Hamas to give up its rkt arsenal. 2. Hamas and Egypt Response. In the hours since the proposal, Hamas’s mil wg, the Izz al-Deen al-Qassam Bdes, has claimed resp for the most recent rd of rkt attks and has flat-out rejected the truce a rejection echoed by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine. The Israeli Cabinet voted in favor of the cease-fire but rejected after a fresh barrage of rkts was launched from Gaza. 3. Israel’s Dilemma Israel remains in a deep quandary. It could use the continued rkt attks to justify a further escalation of Op Protective Edge, but the same constraints that have led it to avoid a grnd aslt are pushing Israel to entertain a cease-fire now. It cannot destroy Gazas rkt sup through an air campaign, and the pol cost of dply grnd tps into the densely populated areas of Gaza where these stockpiles are hidden is simply too high. At the same time, Israel faces an immense challenge in interdic the sup of rkts. Egypt has proven unreliable in stemming the flow of long-rg rkts into Gaza, and Israel has failed through its own int assets to detect significant shipments. 4. Sit Expl by Hamas. It should therefore come as no surprise that Hamas’ militant wg is brazenly rejecting the cease-fire. The gp already expects to take a pol hit from the destr caused by this latest rd of hostilities and the prolonged blockade on Gaza. The gp needs to expl this ph while it can, trying to notch a symbolic victory over an Israeli adversary that is reaching the limits of its air campaign. 5. Hamas- Egypt Trust Deficit. Hamas also remains deeply distrustful of Egypt, having seen its parent org, the Muslim Brotherhood, pol destroyed by the current mil-led govt in Cairo headed by President and former FM Abdel Fattah al-Sisi. But Cairo itself is divided over how to manage the cease-fire. One camp views the Israeli crackdown on Gaza as an extn of Egypt’s crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood, and this faction favors addressing the Gaza sit with a firm hand. Another camp pts to the pol risks associated with Egypt seemingly aiding Israel’s policies in Gaza at the expense of Palestinian civilians, as well as the security risks. A weakening of Hamas cont over Gaza could allow Salafist-jihadist gps to emerge from the growing competition within the Gaza Strip, even as Cairo is already struggling with Salafist-jihadists in Sinai. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis and Ajnad Misr, gps based in Sinai and suspected of carrying out rkt attks against Israel, have also struck in mainland Egypt. 6. Other dynamics. Another dynamic extends beyond the Egypt-Gaza-Israel theater. It is no secret that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad have benefited from a close mil relationship with Iran, which has sup these gps with a sizable arsenal of long-rg rkts. But the US attn is divided betn its attempts to help mov along a cease-fire and its ngns with Iran over a nuc deal. There is also the question of whether Egypt can get Sudan a significant conduit to the rkt supply chain to limit its coop with Iran. 7. Though neither Hamas nor Israel is interested in a prolonged mil conflict, the cease-fire ngns will face multiple challenges in the days ahead. The talks are unlikely to fundamentally address Israels dilemma in cutting off the sup of rkts to Gaza, nor are they likely to aid Hamas efforts to lift the blockade.
Posted on: Tue, 15 Jul 2014 18:15:22 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015