ACRs of COAS-in-waiting! VIEW : New army chief: challenges and choices — I — Imran Bajwa The die is apparently cast and as Pakistan arrives at the crossroads of her future, the prime minister has to make some tough, prudent and futuristic choices The clock is ticking on the choice of selecting the new army chief but the pendulum strikes every hour with new warnings, those of IEDs, suicide bombers, targeted bullets and rockets. Nothing has changed on the ground since the last All Parties Conference (APC). A GOC and Field Commander martyred, the massacre at a mosque-like Peshawar church and plans to break into main Adiala Jail after the Bannu and DI Khan successful jailbreaks. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is raising the ante in an elaborate bid to nerve out an already brutalised nation and its leadership. Moreover, the Taliban want all their battle-hardened boys (some 4,750) in Pakistani jails freed and the army to lose all ground in FATA by withdrawing every soldier from the Sacred Land as Confidence Building Measures (CBMs). Yield all ground as CBMs and get ready for serious stuff at the negotiating table like Islamic Shariah nizam in all of FATA and PATA and even whole of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and parts of southern Punjab. Karachi may be on the table as well and, in fact, the whole of Pakistan may be an opening demand. The die is apparently cast and as Pakistan arrives at the crossroads of her future, the prime minister has to make some tough, prudent and futuristic choices. Nothing to reminisce about in the past though as Pakistan has changed a huge lot since 1999. It is time for daring and clear headed decisions now. The choice of the next chief of army staff (COAS), due any time next month, is amongst a frontrunner and relatively junior lieuenant generals as per some published media reports from Pakistan and abroad. It appears that Lt. General Rashad Mehmood, the current Chief of General Staff (CGS) is the front runner while Lt. General Tariq Khan, Corps Commander, One Corps, Mangla, may prove to be a dark horse based on the challenges at hand. Between them Lt. General Rashad carries the reputation of a workable option in the spirit of the status quo and could also be the favourite choice of the outgoing General Ashfaq Kayani, who groomed him. He has served as the military secretary to President Rafiq Tarar (friend of Mian Sharif , the late father of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif) as a Brigadier in 1999. He comes from Lahore and is a Punjabi, served as the Corps Commander, Lahore, has first hand working experience with the Sharifs and currently holds the second most prestigious post of the CGS at GHQ. The CGS is the operational secretary of the COAS and oversees both Military Intelligence (MI) and Military Operations (MO). He also served ISI as a two star general. Lt. General Tariq Khan, on the other hand, is the son of the Khan of Tank (a neighbouring area of Waziristan), a Pathan, a fighting general, a morale boosting and galvanising commander for troops, some of whom are totally not resolved to fight their Muslim brethren in the shape of the Taliban. Reputed as an ultimate soldier, Lt. General Khan has delivered in counter-insurgency operations as General Officer Commanding, 14 Division in Wana (South Waziristan) and has served as Inspector General Frontier Constabulary (IGFC) in KP until 2010. As such, he has an active, first-hand command and combat engagement history with the Taliban for at least six years. Being a local, he fully understands the dynamics of the insurgency areas, local culture and the psyche of the so-called Taliban. Whether fighting them out or bringing them to the table for a peace deal, he could be a better option. He is currently heading Pakistan’s Strike Corps, i.e. Mangla, which also gives him the added advantage to deal with the threat from the eastern borders. Besides, being the recipient of the US Legion of Merit, Lt General Khan is best suited to deal with the Pentagon during the critical time of US and NATO withdrawal from Afghanistan. This battle-hardened general can help spur a battle-fatigued army in the fight against militancy by boosting their morale as a commander on the frontline. Lt. General Khan is reputed in the army circles as blunt and rash, which has some truth, but he also is a man of action and knows his enemies well. He seems to be a pragmatic choice to head a fighting army over other choices that may have been acceptable in a peacetime transition. Being a soldier to the core, he may assert in military strategy and operational matters but is likely to keep away from politics. Besides, if chosen, he will leave behind his legacy by choosing bright officers in the army’s top hierarchy. Building operational consensus and bringing everyone on one page did become obvious when Lt. General Tariq Khan took over as the IGFC in KP. Until that point the Governor House, Headquarters 11 Corps, PM Secretariat, KP Police Headquarters and Headquarters FC KP were all looking in different directions. It was Lt. General Khan who convinced the GHQ, Headquarters 11 Corps and Governor House KP to allow the newly elected ANP leadership to try out the option of dialogue with the Malakand Division Taliban. He already had conveyed that the dialogue would never succeed but let the newly elected ANP government get a moral victory and also show the real face of the terrorists to the public, who were still in doubt about the real motives of the Taliban. History proved that it was the best decision of the then political leadership of KP. Then during the conduct of military operations in Swat, Bajaur, South Waziristan, Dir, Buner , Mohmand, Orakzai, Kurram and Hangu district, he proved to be the binding factor among the Governor House KP, CM House KP, Headquarters 11 Corps, Police and Frontier Constabulary. Pakistan’s army has already declared the internal security threats to be their number one challenge in the security doctrine of Pakistan We all know that the dialogue with the Taliban can fail and decisive military operations may have to be conducted. Thus, General Tariq Khan is considered as the hope of success in the war on terrorism by the soldiers and junior leaders of the army. He also enjoys the support of the local population not only because he is a Pashtun military commander but is also considered by the people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) as the main successful general during the conduct of miltary operations against the militants. Secondly, the PML-N leadership can accrue long lasting political advantages by eliminatimg militancy from KP, Karachi and Balochistan as General Khan can handle the security situation of the country and with success that the nation will cherish. The PML-N is already strong in Punjab and it needs lasting support in the other three provinces. It is clear that the people of KP, Balochistan and Karachi do not want anything else but a secure environment and whoever ensures them security will be a long term winner in those troubled regions. At the same time, General Khan is a general who will always speak the truth in front of everyone. If he will have some suggestions with regard to the security and defence of the country, he is expected to put forward his sincere advice to the chief executive of the country and will try to convince him or get convinced. He is a general whose ins and outs are always visible and remain very transparent. Besides dealing with militancy and handling the security sitiuation of the country, General Khan has the ability and resolve to take strict and harsh decisions with regards to bringing drastic changes to make the army a professional one and cleaning the military intelligence and ISI from some black sheep and putting these two organisations on the assigned role as per the constitution. Keeping the present situation in mind the best option is to promote the general from KP/FATA, which is the centre of Taliban activities and from where most of their activities are generated throughout the length and breadth of the country. Two more generals, Lt. General Haroon and Lt. General Raheel Sharif, are also in the run but their chances of getting the coveted post are not bright. In as much as the prime minster is concerned, major calculative points in selecting the new army chief are four, notwithstanding his on record statement on seniority and merit to be the criteria in his judgement. Firstly, there must be an appraisal of Pakistan’s internal threats, with domestic militancy and asymmetrical warfare taking the lead in the short to medium term, and then implementing a cohesive strategy to push back the terrorist onslaught on the state. Pakistan’s army has already declared the internal security threats to be their number one challenge in the security doctrine of Pakistan. Recently, the army changed its decades-old doctrine by acknowledging that growing militancy in the country was posing a serious threat to the country’s national security. Secondly, the upcoming drawdown of the US and NATO forces from Afghanistan towards the end of 2014, and the challenges thereto. Also, to gauge what would be in Pakistan’s best interests after this drawdown and to ensure that Pakistan does not lose much due to the impending power vacuum in Afghanistan. Thirdly, there is Pakistan’s external security threat and possible hostility from India in the long run, specially in case of any major terror attacks on India, including their stakes in Afghanistan. India’s declared Cold Start Doctrine of maximising the gains in 72 hours of conventional and surprise warfare is also a case in point. And fourthly, there is Pakistan’s long term security positioning towards the US and the future of Pak-US military relations. In as much as the army’s role in domestic politics and its traditional grip on matters of security and foreign affairs is concerned, the new Pakistan will gradually squeeze them out from the army if democracy is strengthened in Pakistan. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is already holding the defence and foreign affairs ministeries in his direct control for the same reason. With General Kayani graduating to a full time member of the National Security Council and Lt. General Rashad moving onto the prestigious port of the JCGS and General Tariq Khan taking the mantle as COAS, Pakistan’s security establishment would be ready to deal with all the above challenges. Prime Minister Sharif’s subjective experience of army generals in the past may steer him towards the status quo or taking a low-key General as his next COAS but the dictates of the time and challenges on the ground are far too great to ignore. It is expected that the prime minister will clearly appreciate the challenges at hand and choose someone with proven leadership qualities, strategy, vision and operational preparedness as the next chief for an army that may remain in active war for a few years to come. (Concluded) The writer is a freelance columnist
Posted on: Thu, 03 Oct 2013 00:25:38 +0000
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