AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL The UK based influential Magazine tips Edgar Lungu to win the forthcoming elections Tuesday 30th December 2014 Dear Subscribers, Already, the political and economic agenda for 2015 is filling up amid some far-reaching changes in the international trading system, such as the steep fall in the price of oil, and the wider effects of the rebalancing of Chinas economy.Africa Confidentials full prognosis for the political and economic year – with detailed analyses of prospects in several key countries – will appear in the first edition of the new year. In the meantime, here are some thoughts about scheduled elections and conferences in 2015: ZAMBIA (presidential by-election on 20 January): Patriotic Front ahead of the pack After a public falling-out between factions loyal to interim President Guy Scott and Defence Minister Edgar Lungu, the incumbent Patriotic Front has closed ranks. Lungu is now the partys official candidate and the strong grassroots support that he attracts makes him the favourite to win the election in January (AC Vol 55 No 24, The PF picks two candidates). NIGERIA (presidential election on 14 February): The growing opposition challenge Buoyed by a successful conference and the choice of Muhammadu Buhari as a strong presidential candidate, the opposition All Progressives Congress scents victory. Oil prices, the weakening naira and crashing share values are testing President Goodluck Jonathans claims to have transformed the economy. Attacks by the Islamist insurgents ofBoko Haram could damage all the contenders in the election: although they expose the failings of Jonathans government on security they have also driven millions of voters, in mainly opposition-supporting areas, from their homes and thus also from the chance to vote. There is also rising concern about the mechanics of the election organisation, both in areas hit by the insurgency and in other areas, where there are reports that over ten million names have been inadvertently struck off the electoral roll. The official number of registered voters has fallen to around 59 million from 70 million a year ago and those who have been struck off are being urged to re-register (AC Vol 55 No 25, Political storm warning). SUDAN (presidential election on 2 April): Opposition boycott renders certain Omer el Beshirs victory The signs are that the new alliance of opposition organisations will boycott the scheduled elections, accusing the government of bad faith: arresting dissidents and refusing to negotiate substantively on the conditions for a credible election. A last effort to avert the mass boycott may be made by the African Unions mediator Thabo Mbeki in January when he has said he will try to bring together the government and its foes in a National Dialogue (AC Vol 55 No 25, The opposition shows new political will). RT: Emmanuel Mwamba
Posted on: Thu, 01 Jan 2015 09:33:53 +0000
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