AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 339 AM CDT SUN AUG 11 2013 .SHORT TERM...OVERALL THE NIGHT HAS BEEN RATHER QUIET BUT SHRA HAVE BEEN TRYING TO DEVELOP FINALLY. TEMPS HAVE COOLED ABOUT AS MUCH AS EXPECTED AND MOST LOCATIONS MAY DROP ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO BEFORE SUNRISE. MDLS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TWRDS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR RAIN WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAR GREATER COVERAGE TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS PUSHING BACK INTO THE REGION AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. PWS ARE ALREADY BACK ABV 2" AND SHOULD REMAIN NEAR 2.15". AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW OVER THE SWRN GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WORK WEST INTO MEXICO TODAY. THIS WILL SEND A DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST TO THE SE OF THE COAST...INTO THE AREA TODAY...COMBINE THAT WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH WEAK LL CONVERGENCE AND SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD HAVE LITTLE DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ONE LAST THING TO MENTION IS THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME UPPER LVL DIVERGENCE TO WORK WITH AND THIS COULD AID IN PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAIN TODAY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA. GENERAL STORM MOTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE TO THE NW AND A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HEADING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH AS MDLS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE RIDGE NOT CONNECTING OVER THE SERN CONUS. THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE SERN CONUS CURRENTLY WILL WEAKEN AND SLIDE BACK TO THE EAST WHILE A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL NATURALLY LEAD TO A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LVLS ON MON BUT THIS WEAKNESS WILL BECOME MORE EXAGGERATED AS ANOTHER L/W TROUGH (SEEMS TO BE A THEME THIS SUMMER) DEVELOPS OVER THE ERN CONUS. WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A WEAKENING RIDGE LOOK FOR SCT TO NUM DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. /CAB/ .LONG TERM...MEDIUM RANGE MDLS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP. THE PATTERN SHIFT WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BY WED AND ONCE AGAIN WE LOOK TO MOVE INTO A DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH WHICH HAD DOMINATED MUCH OF THE SUMMER UNTIL RECENTLY. HEADING INTO WED AND THE BACK HALF OF THE WORK WEEK RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO BE RATHER HIGH. THE BNDRY THAT HAS REMAINED WELL OFF TO OUR NORTH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH NORTH ARKANSAS FLOODING RAIN WILL GET A SURGE TO THE SOUTH UNDER NW FLOW WITH THE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE ERN CONUS. THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE INTO THE CWA THU AND FRI AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WINK TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO ABV NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO INCREASE POPS IN THE EXTENDED AND WILL SHOW 40-60% THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. /CAB/ &&
Posted on: Sun, 11 Aug 2013 15:34:21 +0000