AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 624 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/ VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT KAMA AND KGUY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS ANY -TSRA SHOULD STAY WEST OF TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FOR KDHT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A VCTS WAS INCLUDED AS -TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 23Z-05Z WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING IF -TSRA DIRECTLY IMPACTS TERMINAL. KNS && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM CDT SUN JUN 30 2013/ AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS EARLY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE PUSHING OFF TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BRINGING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR TODAY...THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM ACTION DURING THE DAY BEFORE STORMS FIRE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES. LOOKS LIKE A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEST OF A GUYMON TO AMARILLO LINE FOR THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO OVERNIGHT. WITH NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED DURING THE DAY TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH OFF AND ON CLOUD COVERAGE. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL ALL BE SIMILAR DAYS AS THE UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES TO THE WEST OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH STORMS SPILLING OVER INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL NOT SEE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON THESE DAYS WITH ONLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES HAVING THE BEST CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NICE BREAK FROM THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EXPECTED EACH DAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO ARISE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE ECMWF IS DEFINITELY THE WETTER SOLUTION WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WEST IN NEW MEXICO OR SOUTH ACROSS WEST TEXAS. AT THIS POINT...DECIDED TO KEEP MINIMAL POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME AS UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND THE REGION. TIMING OF THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE A LITTLE TOO DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT AT THIS TIME...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE ON THURSDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE WESTERN PANHANDLES HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WITH THE FAVORED TIMING BEING AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WANE. KNS && .FIRE WEATHER... ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT...PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND 20 FOOT WINDS GENERALLY STAYING UNDER 15 MPH. KNS && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$
Posted on: Sun, 30 Jun 2013 13:11:11 +0000
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