AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF MIDDLE/ERN TN AND CENTRAL/ERN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 091623Z - 091800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN INTO CENTRAL AND ERN KY...WITH LOCALLY STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. A SLIGHT RISK WILL BE ADDED TO THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK THAT WILL INCLUDE PARTS OF THIS REGION. DISCUSSION...12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW EXTENDING FROM WRN AL INTO MIDDLE AND ERN TN...WITH A RATHER MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALREADY IN PLACE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.5 INCH PER 12Z BNA SOUNDING/. A CONTINUATION OF DEEP LAYER SLY WINDS INTO THE TN VALLEY TODAY WILL SUPPORT FURTHER MOISTENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED AN IMPULSE MOVING INTO MIDDLE TN...WHILE AN MCV WAS APPARENT AND CURRENTLY TRACKING INTO NRN AL. WEAK SURFACE BASED INHIBITION EVIDENT ON REGIONAL 12Z MORNING SOUNDINGS HAS ALREADY BEEN ERODED BY SURFACE HEATING...WITH TSTMS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE TN VALLEY TO THE SERN STATES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KY AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...FURTHER DESTABILIZING THE AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSE AND MCV WITHIN SLIGHTLY STRONGER SLY MIDLEVEL WINDS /40+ KT AOA 6 KM AGL PER VWP DATA FROM MIDDLE TN TO CENTRAL KY/ SUGGEST STORM ORGANIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FAVORING LINE SEGMENTS. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO TEMPER THE INSTABILITY AND RESULT IN LESS ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT COULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
Posted on: Sun, 09 Jun 2013 16:42:12 +0000
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