After going through the latest computer models (morning runs at 12Z), I am favoring the WPC model and the GFS model for the moisture outlook through Friday. I will start off with Colorado and then talk about the rest of the country. COLORADO PRECIP OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY ------------------------------------------------------------------------- The two models I am going with are very similar to what I am seeing in the other computer models. There is going to be plentiful moisture through at least Friday midday and possibly through Friday evening. Both models are not too far off in their QPF (total moisture). Map 1 is the GFS model, and it has the northern Front Range and the Foothills very near 1.25 inches, with up to 1 inch found in most Foothill and Front Range locations. Map number 2, the WPC Model, shows a 3 day total up to 1 inch in the Foothills and along the Front Range. The SREF Model, not shown here, is up to 1.25 over this same 3 day period, and the NAM model, also not shown, is up to .75 over this same period. The Front Range towns included are Lyons, Boulder, Fort Collins, extending east to Denver and then north to the Wyoming border. Adjacent towns to this line will also be included, for example, Longmont, Windsor, Loveland Berthoud Greeley and all of Denver Metro. The Foothill locations include Estes Park, Pinwood, Nederland and Livermore. Although a pattern like this wont bring generalized big totals to every location, a general .5 to .75 in most areas is not out of the question, with localized heavy rains possibly bringing in excess of 2 inches of rain. Its impossible to pinpoint where the slow moving gully-washers will set up. Ill know more as the newer storms develop and start tracking across the Mountains, Foothills and then to the Eastern Plains. This looks like a soggy period, and I cant rule out the chance for some flooding in the heavier rain bands. I will be monitoring these storms as they develop and then track across the state. Temps are going to be quite nice, with highs only in the 70s along the Front Range and in the 60s in the Foothills through Friday. Rain-soaked areas could see temps 10 degrees cooler than than what I am showing here. Ill be monitoring this wet pattern very closely and will keep you all updated on any flooding potential. OTHER PARTS OF THE UNITED STATES --------------------------------------------------------- Check out the color shading in your part of the country. If you are in the blue, purple or red shading, you have the chance to get over an inch of rain. The legends for each map are on the left side of the page. Both models consistently show parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and South Dakota receiving the heaviest rainfall totals. WPC is showing a swatch of almost 4 inches in the red shading, with the bulls-eye being over northeastern Nebraska. The GFS model is showing 2 plus inches in parts of these same states. Again these totals are for the 72 hour outlook through Friday. The rest of the country that is in the light green to dark green shading will not see totals that exceed .5. For my family and friends in southeast Texas, map number 2, the WPC model, is showing some nice totals from the Hempstead/Waller County areas extending east through Houston and Galveston. As you get closer to the coast the totals grow. Even in Houston, you all could see up to an inch, IF this model verifies. In my home area of Waller County, you all could get up to .75. Again, this is IF the WPC model verifies. Map number 1, the GFS model, is not so gracious with the moisture over southeast Texas, as it shows much less. Root for map 2 if you all want the rain. IN SUMMARY ------------------- As always, Ill keep you all updated on the upcoming weather pattern. Thank you for being a part of Weather Talk. Always appreciate your feedback and weather spotter information. And if you have questions, dont hesitate to post them here. Have a great evening everyone! :-)
Posted on: Wed, 27 Aug 2014 01:21:37 +0000
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