Although its not openly visible, the Chinese leadership offered Dr. Manmohan Singh that #China and #India formulate and implement a joint strategy on #Afghanistan during his recent visit to Beijing, the prime concern of both sides being the use of Afghan soil for the sponsorship of Islamist #terrorism against both of them as the #US forces draw down and a #Taliban government possibly takes over in Kabul. And what a surprise, the two countries have large investments as well as mutually aligning core interests in Afghanistan, and they will be the first that the Kabul regime will seek assistance from for its own sustenance after Western aid will dry up post-2014! Heres the basis on which the author suggests cooperation between the two countries: Neither may want to shoulder the burden of a weak state pressured by a strong insurgency, but they will quickly find themselves as the powers with the greatest capacity to exert influence in an Afghanistan that continues to have the potential to be a regional spoiler. Note this statement: Regional balancing complicates bilateral cooperation between India and China. It requires that China find a way to persuade #Pakistan to accept a greater Indian role in Afghanistan, with India in return demonstrating a greater willingness to accept Pakistan’s inability to manage its domestic problems and to refrain from inflaming those problems. Interestingly, the author does not suggest India refraining from using the role it seeks in Afghanistan against Pakistan. Once it started using that country as a second front against Pakistan, it lost the case for persuading Pakistan to accept any Indian role there. It is nothing but implicit recognition of Pakistans role and influence in Afghanistan that any analysis of Indias role there today necessarily involves suggestions about how to convince Pakistan to let it have a role there. This was not the case in the recent past when India had the upper hand there: India does offer some military training, but it is understandably restrained given Pakistani paranoia of Indian domination in Afghanistan. The answer is a joint effort whereby Chinese and Indian forces find some way to offer cooperative training missions, or at the very least parallel ones. This will both assuage Pakistani concerns (given its proximity to China), but also double the support that the ANSF is getting from outside powers. --> Note the use of the word paranoia to describe Pakistans valid and reality-grounded concerns. It has become increasingly clear that India is indeed running vile shenanigans against Pakistan from Afghan soil under the cover of any supposedly legitimate interests it could possibly have there, yet here we have an opportunity to behold the wonders of politically-motivated propaganda. Furthermore, as one commentator to this article noted, the US/Wests adventure in the post-9/11 Muslim world has been a disaster to its own strategic ambitions, having expended its own money, firepower and lives only to watch all its strategic space (and the target countries natural resources) be grabbed by its rivals like China in the case of Afghanistan and Iran in the case of Iraq. In effect, all the US/Wests hard work amounted to destroying whatever workable governance structure existed then getting out defeated, leaving it up to the targets neighbors to clean up the mess. thediplomat/the-editor/2013/10/26/china-and-india-time-to-cooperate-on-afghanistan/ Heres a look at about Chinas new strategy in Afghanistan, which involves its own independent negotiations with the Afghan Taliban: foreignpolicy/articles/2013/06/20/why_is_china_talking_to_the_taliban?page=full&wp_login_redirect=0. And this was our post on what implications that strategy has for Pakistan: foreignpolicy/articles/2013/06/20/why_is_china_talking_to_the_taliban?page=full&wp_login_redirect=0
Posted on: Mon, 18 Nov 2013 12:16:03 +0000
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