Anti-government protests in #Bangladesh likely to increase as BNP attempts to rebuild momentum | IHS Janes Intelligence Weekly - 27 July 2014 Key Points Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia has said that the party will renew its anti-government movement after July. Similar calls have been made by the party since its boycott of the January 2014 election, but nothing has materialised. Nevertheless, the latest call is more credible given the growing need within the party for greater political relevance. The contours of the BNPs plans are yet to be announced, but IHS sources suggest that the BNP will initiate multiple rallies across Bangladesh, including in the capital Dhaka. However, the emphasis on rallies and re-galvanising party workers will mean a lower likelihood of strikes and blockades, which are unpopular due to protest apathy in the country. EVENT The Bangladesh Nationalist Partys activities have been muted since the party boycotted the January 2014 parliamentary election. Former prime minister and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Khaleda Zia has repeatedly warned of another anti-government movement against the Awami League (AL) government since the January 2014 parliamentary election. The BNP boycotted the January 2014 election after its last round of hartals (strikes forcing businesses to close) failed to force the AL government to hold the poll under a neutral caretaker government. Hundreds of protesters, supporting both the BNP and the AL, were killed across the country between October 2013 and the election. Protests subsided after polling, but the risk of political instability remains high. Although the AL is currently largely unopposed in parliament, the circumstances of the election, in which more than half the candidates were elected unopposed, can be easily exploited by the BNP with support from Western nations (who have been critical of the polls lack of inclusiveness). The deeply entrenched rivalry between Zia and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has meant that appetite for compromise remains limited. Introspection for the BNP The lack of BNP protests since January is attributable to various factors, including protest fatigue among the population and party supporters. The partys operations have also been heavily disrupted by security forces. Despite the absence of major protests, there are regular reports of BNP arrests and killings (which feeds the risk of instability in the country). The polices Rapid Action Battalion (RAB) has in particular been criticised domestically and internationally for its alleged role in enforced disappearances since the election. Even in Bogra, considered a BNP stronghold, supporters, activists, and individuals associated with the party have been under significant pressure through the crackdown on party workers. Senior level contacts within the BNP have confirmed to IHS that withstanding such pressure from the government and keeping the party intact has proved to be a greater challenge than had been initially anticipated by the party leadership. The decision not to participate in the January election under an AL rather than a neutral caretaker government, allegedly because it would disadvantage the BNP, has been divisive for the BNP leadership. Whereas some senior leaders argue that boycotting the election undermined its legitimacy, others argue that the party could have capitalised on the momentum it had built with its protest movement in late 2013. Despite these divisions, the party seems united on its next move. As IHS has highlighted previously, the BNPs lack of any presence in parliament will probably lead to the party resorting to street protests this year. Moreover, the inactivity of the party has also jeopardised the political careers of grassroot leaders; this will force the BNP to act quickly to avoid risking vital support. Local body elections, which were held after the parliamentary election, will also boost the BNPs confidence in its support. BNP-endorsed candidates performed well early in the voting, but the polls quickly became plagued by accusations of AL-sponsored rigging, which further played into the BNP argument for a caretaker government. Uneasy alliance The BNPs alliance with Bangladeshs main Islamist political party, Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), will be vital for the success of future anti-government protests. Both parties are united in their opposition to the AL government, but they have distinct agendas. For JeI, the AL has posed an existential threat to the Islamist party, with nine members of its senior leadership, including its head, being charged with war crimes allegedly committed during Bangladeshs war of independence from Pakistan in 1971. The party also shares an apprehension of closer relations with secular India (now governed by a Hindu-nationalist party), which has traditionally been favoured by the AL. JeIs support base is small compared with the two main parties in Bangladesh, but its followers can be mobilised in large numbers. The BNP recognises that without JeIs street presence, especially in areas that are its traditional strongholds, it will be unable to mount an effective anti-government initiative. However, there are indicators suggesting that a rift may have developed between the allies, caused in part by the failure of 2013s movement. Potentially complicating this further are efforts by the AL government to wean JeI away from the BNP. According to IHS sources in Dhaka, the AL is engaged in negotiations with JeI about ending its alliance with the BNP. Although this report is uncorroborated, it would explain the governments softening approach to fully banning JeI and the lack of progress in the war crimes trials during 2014. Even within the BNP, there are growing calls for distancing the JeI, especially to boost the partys support among the youth, who will increasingly constitute a swing vote in the future. Although these indicators highlight the weakness of the alliance, the co-dependence between the two parties for now ensures that they will probably continue to work together. FORECAST Since last month, Zia has been more detailed about the BNPs latest programme for protest, saying that the party will restart its movement after Eid. It is likely that she meant Eid-ul-Fitr on 28 July, rather than Eid-ul-Adha in October. The contours of the programme are yet to be announced, but IHS sources suggest that the BNP will initiate multiple protests and rallies across Bangladesh, including in Dhaka. The emphasis on rallies and re-galvanising party workers will mean a lower likelihood of strikes and blockades, which are unpopular due to protest apathy in the country. Furthermore, the absence of a definitive deadline as there was with the 2013 movement (with the deadline then being the January election) reduces the risk of a rapid escalation of violence. Therefore, the movement this time is likely to be more gradual, but with the same objective. The success of a new movement in forcing another election is difficult to gauge, but a change of government for now appears unlikely in the next year. The performance of the AL government will be vital. The BNP will probably attempt to take advantage of any controversies drawing national outrage, such as the allegations of the RABs involvement in the disappearances of opposition activists after the election. Along with the elections lack of legitimacy, highlighted by the United States and some European Union countries, this will drive the risk of instability for the duration of the AL governments term in power, especially if the BNPs new campaign is able to build momentum. If it does, the BNP will probably return to calling strikes and blockades to pressure the AL government. Previous indicators suggest that the government will meet any form of dissent with force. Considering how much the AL has been able to consolidate its power over the last six months, any attempt by the BNP to return to the streets will be challenged by the government. This will probably drive localised fighting between the security forces and protesters, involving Molotov cocktails, tear gas, baton charges, and water cannon. Areas at highest risk for street fighting will include Chittagong and Dhaka, as well as Khulna division and Bogra district in Rajshahi division. janes/article/41258/anti-government-protests-in-bangladesh-likely-to-increase-as-bnp-attempts-to-rebuild-momentum
Posted on: Wed, 30 Jul 2014 16:43:45 +0000